Abel Tasman forecast to fetch a huge sum in spite of US economic woe

In the midst of the one of the most volatile periods of American stock market trading in history, the Keeneland January mixed sale will begin a four-day run on Monday featuring broodmares and newly-turned yearlings by more than 20 first-crop stallions.

The undisputed standout among the 1,574 horses catalogued, however, is champion Abel Tasman, a six-time Grade 1 winner and the best offspring to date of sizzling sire Quality Road.

Consigned as Hip 288 by Taylor Made Sales Agency on behalf of owners China Horse Club and Clearsky Farms, five-year-old Abel Tasman is being celebrated as a queen on the sale grounds with giant signs outside her stall and a special visitors’ tent containing coffee, cookies, souvenirs and a video of her feats.

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“The reaction has been great. You knew she would be well received because she’s just a big, beautiful mare and very athletic. She’s got a lot of personality and she is sweet and classy,” said Taylor Made vice president Mark Taylor.

“So far, so good. She’s in the part of the market that I feel the best about - the really, really high-end quality seems to be kind of impervious to whatever else is going on. That sweet spot is going to be strong."

While the stock market’s turbulence - diving to its lowest point in a decade at the end of 2018 and then soaring up 700 points on January 4 - is a concern as thoroughbred sale fortunes often reflect Wall Street’s mood swings, it is not a major issue for blue-chip broodmare prospects.

“I don’t think it is a good thing for the horse market in general, but mares like Abel Tasman are so rare to come across and they retain their value. It’s not like somebody speculating and thinking, ‘I’m going to buy her and then try to flip her next year,’ like they might with a weanling,” Taylor said.

“It’s a different mindset altogether - more like it would be with a rare piece of art when someone might think: ‘When am I going to have a chance to buy this again? Probably never.’

“People in the horse business are very opportunistic,” he added. “We have clients who have made by far their best buys in a schizophrenic market where people are scared. It goes back to what Warren Buffett said - when there is fear in the market, that’s the time to buy.”

Bred by the Cleary family’s Clearsky Farms, Abel Tasman won the 2017 Kentucky Oaks, the Acorn Stakes and the Coaching Club American Oaks in succession and finished second by a half-length to older mare Forever Unbridled in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff to earn champion three-year-old female honours.

Abel Tasman is also a finalist for the Eclipse Award as champion older filly or mare for 2018, a prize that will not be announced until January 24, due to her two Grade 1 victories as a four-year-old. Also a Grade 1 winner at two, she earned a total of $2,793,385 after capturing half of her 16 starts and placing in three other Grade 1 events.

With her record, looks and pedigree, Abel Tasman can be expected to draw more than $2 million, perhaps significantly more, judging by the sale of another Quality Road champion filly in November.

Caledonia Road, a champion juvenile who secured one Grade 1 victory, was sold at Fasig-Tipton for $2.3 million to Yoshiyuki Ito’s Grand Farm with agent Emmanuel de Seroux of Narvick International handling the acquisition.

Meanwhile, the Keeneland January catalogue also features number of other mares with solid race or produce records, including French-bred Fatale Bere, who won the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks on turf last August for a partnership. The four-year-old daughter of Pedro The Great is a supplemental entry from ELiTE Sales and is catalogued as Hip 397K.

Some other notable lots are Hip 29, Magical Weekend, a half-sister to the dam of Triple Crown winner Justify in foal to 2017 Horse of the Year Gun Runner; Hip 168, Sunlight Cat, a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Moreno from the family of champion Dance Smartly and in foal to American Pharoah; Hip 189, Uchitel, a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Composure and dam of Grade 1-placed Graded winner Suddenbreakingnews who is in foal to Arrogate.

There are also Hip 196, Virtuoso, a full-sister to Grade 1 winner and sire Paynter in foal to Into Mischief; Hip 229, A Star is Born, a full-sister to Rip Van Winkle and dam of multiple Group 1-placed Fleet Review and carrying a full-sibling by War Front; Hip 361, Gracie Square, an Awesome Again half-sister to War Front in foal to Uncle Mo; Hip 414, Light Blow, a half-sister to Epsom and Irish Oaks winner Light Shift (dam of Ulysses) who has produced stakes winner Explode and is in foal to Karakontie, and Hip 440, Media Mischief, an Into Mischief half-sister to Prix de Diane winner Nebraska Tornado who is in foal to Pioneerof The Nile.

Several older mares who have gained distinction in their lifetimes also have been consigned, including Lane’s End’s Oaks winner Casual Look, the dam of Graded winner Casual Smile who is now 19 and carrying what will be her 12th foal to the cover of Honor Code.

Gainesway has consigned 20-year-old Curriculum, a half sister to Malibu Moon and dam of Temple City who is carrying her 13th foal on a cover by Empire Maker, and Taylor Made has consigned 22-year-old Unacloud, dam of a pair of Grade 1 winners including 2017 leading freshman sire Overanalyze, who is carrying her 15th foal after being bred to Distorted Humor.

Casual Look: the 2003 Oaks winner is set to sell at Keeneland at the age of 19Credit: Edward Whitaker

In addition to the mares, the January sale also offers buyers a chance to acquire short yearlings for possible resale later in the year. A total of 601 yearlings were catalogued, although withdrawals had cut the number on offer down to 490 as of the weekend.

The large number of stallions with first yearlings in the sale includes two-time Horse of the Year California Chrome, European champion Air Force Blue, international campaigner and American champion Flintshire, champion juvenile and Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist, Preakness Stakes winner Exaggerator and champion sprinter Runhappy.

While in bygone years the short yearlings at this sale often were not of the best quality, Taylor said that is no longer a general rule.
“Go back 20 years and a lot of the short yearlings we would have in here were the lesser ones that people were culling and they didn’t want to be in a late book [as weanlings] in November,” he said.

“That dynamic has changed and I think some people put in [newly-turned yearlings] for cash flow reasons and some people put in nice ones because they had later foaling dates and they wanted to give them more time to mature.

“So, I think you’re getting higher quality individuals in January now than you used to,” Taylor continued. “There again, the market has been strong. There is a lot of money out there and I think it is going to remain strong for the good ones.

“The part of the market that is going to get hurt now and is going to continue to get hurt is mares that are just lower-end mares. The maintenance costs for those are just as high as they are for Abel Tasman. That’s where people are shying away - they’re trying to consolidate and get their numbers down.

"It’s unfortunate but it’s just a fact of life,” he observed.

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