Eight dark horses to note at this year's Cheltenham Festival
Owen Goulding has assessed all four days of the 2023 Cheltenham Festival and has his sights on eight horses who could have flown in under the radar for their respective races.
Tuesday
The Ultima (2.50) has produced six winners at double-figure prices in the last ten years, including two at 28-1, and Fanion D'Estruval (33-1 generally) has the task of top weight made easier by the claim of Lucy Turner.
She takes 5lb off the eight-year-old, who has shaped well in three starts this season. He rallied powerfully at Wetherby on Boxing Day off 4lb higher and will be well suited by a burn-up over this trip. He does have the negative of often getting behind in his races, but he will stay and is worth another chance this season.
The Boodles (4.50) produced an 80-1 winner two years ago and a further five winners at 25-1 or bigger in the last ten years, so it's an obvious target race for punters who like outsiders.
Action Motion (33-1 generally) tanked into a Punchestown handicap in January but his finishing effort was slightly disappointing, weakening into fourth late on. He may have travelled too well on that occasion, however, and all his best runs have come in big fields.
Wednesday
The last five runnings of the Coral Cup (2.50) have gone to 50-1, 33-1, 28-1 and 20-1 winners, so don't be afraid of a big-priced runner like Icare Allen (33-1 generally). He is yet to prove his stamina, but his pedigree suggests it is plausible he will stay the trip and he wasn't stopping in last year's Triumph. After an encouraging third at Fairyhouse on his return, he found the ground too quick at Newbury in the Betfair Hurdle and it would be intriguing should he step up in distance.
Delta Work and Galvin will be very difficult to beat in the Glenfarclas Cross Country (4.10), but Mortal (50-1 with Ladbrokes and William Hill) deserves a strong mention. He has finished fourth on both tries over this course and distance, travelling strongly before not quite seeing out the distance. He's very consistent and clearly loves this test. He looks overpriced to run a big race, for all that he would not want soft ground.
Thursday
The Pertemps Final (2.10) is a tricky race to dissect as it's all about finding a well-handicapped one from the qualifiers. That horse this year could be Level Neverending (40-1 generally), who has shaped well without winning in two starts this season, latterly in a qualifier at Warwick in which he was never involved. That run came from 2lb out of the weights on heavy ground and he can do better on a slightly firmer surface with a strong pace to chase.
In the Plate (4.10), I like the chances of the Henry de Bromhead-trained Champagne Gold (25-1 generally). He was never a factor in last year's Coral Cup, but he has improved as a chaser this term and was clearly in need of a stiffer test when second over course and distance in October.
He goes well fresh and remains unexposed for his top connections, giving him excellent each-way claims.
Friday
You need a horse with abundant staying power to win the Albert Bartlett (2.50) and Rock My Way (25-1 with Coral and Ladbrokes) has it in spades. If he was trained by one of the flashier names he would probably be half his current price, given the fact he has won and finished a close second in two starts at Cheltenham. He would have won by a huge distance last time had he not idled on the run-in, but the fact he keeps something up his sleeve is a good quality. He will relish a step up to 3m and rates as a big player.
It is not everyone's favourite, but as a betting heat I love the hunters' chase. Dandy Dan (40-1 generally) was no match for Vaucelet at Stratford in May 2022, but before that he was an easy winner at Cheltenham over course and distance. He will stay all day and his record after a break reads 1131122P2, so I wouldn't be concerned by a 294-day rules absence.
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Published on 13 March 2023inOwen's Outsiders
Last updated 16:03, 13 March 2023
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