What Roaring Lion's pedigree says about his Breeders' Cup Classic chance

Can Roaring Lion transfer his colossal turf talent to the Churchill Downs dirt? That is the $6 million question ahead of Saturday's Breeders' Cup Classic.

His form and ability are beyond question, having landed four consecutive Group 1s. That run began in the Coral-Eclipse and took in the Juddmonte International and Irish Champion Stakes before he dropped back in trip to sweep the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes.

But those wins came on turf - quite literally home soil to Roaring Lion.

As is so often the case in thoroughbreds, the answer to whether he will handle the new surface could well be contained within his pedigree.

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Roaring Lion is by distinguished US stallion Kitten's Joy, and with a Racing Post Rating of 127 is his sire's leading performer by clear water, with his mark putting him 6lb ahead of Hawkbill and Taareef.

Somewhat unusually for a stallion on the cusp of landing his second US sires' title, Kitten's Joy's stock-in-trade is turf performers. The son of El Prado was a top-class runner-up on grass himself, with his racing CV featuring wins in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational and the Secretariat Stakes, both Grade 1s.

Since retiring to stud in 2006, Kitten's Joy has sired 41 Group/Graded winners, with Roaring Lion among 12 of his progeny to have struck at the highest level.

While those are undoubtedly impressive numbers, not least for a stallion who started from relatively humble beginnings, it is perhaps a bad omen for connections and supporters of Roaring Lion that all 12 of those top-flight winners gained their laurels on grass - albeit Stephanie's Kitten also landed the 2011 Alcibiades Stakes on the Keeneland Polytrack.

Moreover, of those 41 Group/Graded winners, only six of those have won at stakes level away from grass, and four of those - namely Dean's Kitten, Derby Kitten, Holiday For Kitten and the aforementioned Stephanie's Kitten - won on Polytrack, not the dirt surface Roaring Lion will encounter in the Classic.

This means that from a group of 41 horses, Kitten's Joy has just two offspring who have won a Graded race on dirt. They are Pick Of The Litter, winner of the Grade 2 Fayette Stakes, and Csaba, who was successful in a trio of Grade 3 events.

Despite their anomalous exploits, the achievements of Pick Of The Litter and Csaba would appear easy to explain, as both are out of mares who won on dirt. That is not something Roaring Lion can boast, as all three of his dam's victories came on turf, as did her Grade 1 placing in the Rodeo Drive Stakes.

His dam, Vionnet, is a sibling to four black-type winners in Alexis Tangier, Bronson, Moulin De Mougin and Schiaparelli, each of whom earned their stripes with success on turf.

It says something of this family's proclivity for racing on grass that the likes of Moulin De Mougin and Schiaparelli are by Curlin and Ghostzapper respectively, sires more commonly associated with runners who show their best on dirt.

In fact, Moulin De Mougin and Schiaparelli managed just one run on dirt between them, with the former finishing 13½ lengths behind Beholder when last of four in the 2014 Santa Lucia Stakes.

Roaring Lion strikes a pose after the Juddmonte International Stakes at YorkCredit: Edward Whitaker

Similarly, Roaring Lion's second dam, Cambiocorsa, gained both of her Grade 3 wins on turf, and likewise her full-brother - California Flag - whose five successes at that level all came on grass.

If there is any encouragement to be taken from Roaring Lion's pedigree as to his prospects of handling dirt, it is mostly likely to come from his damsire, Street Sense.

The son of Street Cry landed three Grade 1s on the surface, namely the Breeders' Cup Juvenile - a race he won by ten lengths, beating among others the late, great Scat Daddy - the Kentucky Derby and Travers Stakes.

Given his immense talent it would be folly to say unequivocally that Roaring Lion cannot win the Breeders' Cup Classic. But if pedigree evidence counts for anything, which it usually does, then the weight of probability looks against him.

But even if the experiment with dirt racing proves unsuccessful, with a stud career beckoning, Roaring Lion's connections would do well to remember that none other than Galileo himself tried and failed to make his mark in the Classic, having trailed in 7¾ lengths behind Tiznow in 2001.

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