Steve Palmer's Arnold Palmer Invitational predictions & free golf betting tips

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When to bet on the Arnold Palmer Invitational

By 12.30pm on Thursday

Where can I watch the Arnold Palmer Invitational

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 12.30pm on Thursday

Steve Palmer's Arnold Palmer Invitational predictions

Ludvig Aberg
4pts each-way 20-1 Betfair, Paddy Power

Tommy Fleetwood
2pts each-way 28-1 Coral, Ladbrokes

Steve Palmer's Arnold Palmer Invitational preview

The fourth of the eight megabucks Signature events on the 2024 PGA Tour schedule takes place at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club – and the 69 competitors will have to earn their corn on the challenging layout.

LIV defector Jon Rahm is the only member of the world's top ten missing the Orlando showpiece. Scottie Scheffler, who has been hitting his ball with trademark authority but putting abysmally, is the favourite.

Rory McIlroy has suggested that Scheffler switches to a mallet-headed putter to help his issues on the greens, but that advice has been ignored thus far. Both Scheffler and McIlroy can be overlooked at short odds this week.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Ludvig Aberg 20-1

The Hawaii Swing was uncharted territory for Ludvig Aberg at the start of this season, then he had to quickly get used to more unfamiliar terrain when making tournaments debuts on the West Coast. This week, the Swedish sensation can hit the ground running at a track he knows, and that spells bad news for his rivals.

The poa annua greens Aberg tackled on the West Coast caused him many a headache – he even endured a four-putt at Torrey Pines South – but he still managed to finish ninth in the Farmers Insurance Open and runner-up in the Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

Aberg was well-positioned to win at Pebble Beach had the weather gods allowed the final round to be played. He was a shot behind Wyndham Clark with 18 holes to play when the tournament was abandoned.

Swinging with huge authority throughout his time in California, Aberg finished 19th on his Genesis Invitational debut last time out, closing with a 68. This week he tees up at the course where he finished 24th when still an amateur 12 months ago. That was just his fourth start in a PGA Tour event and he was ranked 1,983rd in the world.

This week, Aberg will start at Bay Hill ranked 11th in the world, seemingly climbing towards the summit. Ace caddie Joe Skovron ditched Tom Kim, another fine prospect, so he could carry Aberg's bag. Skovron's faith – and that of punters – can be rewarded on Sunday.

Fresh from a fortnight off, Florida-based Aberg's ball-striking class can prove decisive, with a second PGA Tour title coming less than four months after his first.

Next best bet

Tommy Fleetwood 28-1

Three of the last six Bay Hill champions have been European and the biggest threat to Aberg this week may be his Ryder Cup colleague Tommy Fleetwood.

A difficult tee-to-green assignment with lots of wind around seems ideal for Fleetwood. He almost won his first PGA Tour title in this state, finishing third in the 2020 Honda Classic, finding water at the final hole. He was third at Bay Hill in the 2019 Arnold Palmer.

Fifth place in the 2019 Players Championship was another example of Fleetwood's comfort on tough Florida layouts, as well as fourth spot in the 2018 Honda, seventh in the 2018 Players and third place in the Valspar Championship last year.

A maiden PGA Tour victory has been a long time coming and the moment may have arrived. The popular Englishman, who claimed the winning point in the Ryder Cup in October, started 2024 with a triumph in Dubai and finished tenth in the Genesis Invitational last time out.

Course guide for the Arnold Palmer Invitational

• Course Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club and Lodge, Orlando, Florida
• Prize money $20m ($3.6m to the winner)
• Length 7,466 yards
• Par 72 - four par-five holes; ten par-fours; four par-threes
• Field 69 The cut Top 50 and ties (and anyone within ten shots of the lead) qualify for round three
• Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Scottie Scheffler (1), Rory McIlroy (2), Viktor Hovland (4), Xander Schauffele (5), Patrick Cantlay (6)
• Course records - 72 holes 264 Payne Stewart (1987) 18 holes 62 Andy Bean (1981), Greg Norman (1984), Adam Scott (2014)
• Course winners taking part Jason Day, Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, Kurt Kitayama
• When to bet By 12.30pm on Thursday
• When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 12.30pm on Thursday
• Time difference Florida is four hours behind the UK and Ireland
• Last week – Cognizant Classic 1 A Eckroat (125-1), T2 E Van Rooyen (70-1), M W Lee (35-1), T4 Cameron Young (22-1), J Knapp (70-1), KH Lee (175-1), S Lowry (35-1), D Skinns (400-1)
• Course type Parkland
• Course overview Bay Hill has hosted a PGA Tour event every year since 1979. Arnold Palmer made significant changes to the track before the 2010 edition, so form prior is of little relevance. Water is in play on several holes and there are lots of doglegs
• Story of last year Kurt Kitayama fended off Rory McIlroy and Harris English for a maiden PGA Tour title
• Weather forecast Sunny and warm, with light to moderate breezes over the first two days, then fresh breezes over the weekend
• Type of player suited to the challenge There is plenty of water to trouble the competitors on this tough layout, as well as greenside run-off areas, putting a premium on accuracy and the ability to grind pars, especially with wind in the forecast
• Key attribute Accuracy

Steve Palmer's Arnold Palmer Invitational key stat

Six of the last seven winners ranked inside the top ten for greens in regulation

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