Irish breeding - as well as trainers - could hold the key to the Grand National

Studying the pedigrees of runners in the Randox Grand National is far less important than, say, the Derby.

By now, the horses will have demonstrated their ability and most of the evidence of whether they are likely to last out over more than four and a quarter miles and handle different obstacles can be gleaned from their form and running style.

Nonetheless, there are pointers from what has come before. By feeding three factors into the system, we can hope to find examples of horses with the right breeding profile to suggest they will be featuring at the end of Saturday's race.

Any form of analysis on the National isn’t helped by the fact the race is so unique. One running a year is all we have to go on and the waters are muddied by having two previous winners – Corach Rambler and Noble Yeats – in both past statistics and this year’s race. As Tiger Roll also won the race twice, we looked back at the last 11 renewals so as to have a little more to go on.

I Am Maximus: his sire Authorized is responsible for dual Grand National hero Tiger RollCredit: Patrick McCann

Our starting point is where the winner comes from. While French-bred jumpers have again dominated the season via the likes of Galopin Des Champs and State Man, it is the Irish-bred chaser that has a better record in the National. Eight of the last 11 winners have been Irish-bred and 23 have finished second, third or fourth from 265 runners; an 11.7 per cent chance of making the frame. 

France has two wins, eight placed from 113 runners at 8.8 per cent, while there is little to speak of from Britain and other breeding countries. So, for the purposes of narrowing the field down, we’re going to look for an Irish-bred.

Ten different sires have supplied the winner over the course of that time and our quest is made easier by the fact seven of them are without representation in 2024, including the two most prolific over the period, Oscar and Milan.

Authorized, sire of Tiger Roll, has an exemplary record and his only other runner, the frustrating Mister Coffey, still managed to get round last year. This has to give I Am Maximus a big chance and, even if these self-imposed rules preclude him from being picked as the winner on account of being French-bred, the Irish National winner goes into the mix. Authorized is back in Ireland now anyway, so he half counts.

Jeremy, who has proved to be such an excellent stallion from very few crops, has two. Corach Rambler defends his title with a favourite’s chance after his fine run in the Gold Cup and is joined by Ain’t That A Shame, whose case is strengthened by the third piece of research. 

The origin of broodmare sire was not particularly revealing, given the great diversity of stallions involved, but Ain’t That A Shame is out of a Bob Back mare and that great blast from the past was damsire of 2015 winner Many Clouds. 

Yeats: Coolmore's reigning champion National Hunt sire is double handedCredit: Coolmore

For all that Ain’t That A Shame’s new owner, David Maxwell, is undoubtedly a force for good who makes considerable investment in order to chase his dreams, he is a risky win-bet proposition riding against the best professionals. His horse does tick all three boxes, so we will settle with giving the corinthian the thrill of a lifetime and nicking a place.

Reigning British and Irish champion National Hunt sire Yeats has two in the mix, headed by 2022 winner and last year’s fourth Noble Yeats. He remains anchored by an awful lot of weight, this year carrying most of all at 11st 12lb, so this leaves The Goffer as the most interesting one. 

Last month, he travelled well for a long way in the Ultima at Cheltenham on – charity race aside – his first run since October. He has run creditably in big staying chases in the past, including behind Corach Rambler and Fastorslow in the Ultima 12 months earlier.

His damsire, Mister Lord, has not had a Grand National runner in our timeframe but was behind the 2022 Irish National winner Lord Lariat. A very testing track might not be ideal, but The Goffer arrives on a handy mark and looks primed to go well at a big price.

Tom Peacock's Grand National pedigree pick

1. The Goffer, 2. I Am Maximus, 3. Corach Rambler, 4. Ain't That A Shame

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