US racing tips: Tom Collins selects a couple of ex-Europeans on Sunday

Flavius
10.36 Belmont Park
2pts win

Predictable Tully
11.46 Santa Anita
2pts winThe feature on Belmont Park's Sunday night fixture is the $80,000 First Defence Stakes (10.36), a 7f contest on the turf track for four-year-olds and older horses.

A number of these come into the race in fine form, not least Todd Pletcher's Sombeyay and the outside-drawn Therapist, but they will find it tough to hold off Chad Brown's Flavius.

Set to make just his third start in the US after being switched from Dermot Weld's yard, Flavius has drawn perfectly in gate one and should be able to get an ideal run through behind the leaders under Jose Ortiz.

An American-bred five-year-old (son of War Front out of a Dynaformer mare), Flavius showed good ability when with Weld, winning his first start over this trip at Leopardstown as well as a 1m2f Listed contest on just his third outing.

Khalid Abdullah decided to send him Stateside after that race and although he hasn't won in two outings for Brown, he has showed up very well both times.

Flavius has broken slowly on each occasion, which hasn't helped him at all given he went on to race keenly over 1m½f and 1m1f. He endured a torrid trip out the back on his US debut but ran on well for fourth, while he loomed up large to win his race last time only to pay for his early exertions in the final furlong.

Brown makes the smart move in dropping Flavius back in trip, which should allow him to settle behind a quicker gallop, and a strong late burst could see him come out on top.

McKinzie is the star attraction at Santa Anita in the Grade 2 Triple Bend Stakes (12.18), but he will go off at short odds and the best bet on the card runs in the preceding $30,000 maiden claimer (11.46).

The horse in question is Predictable Tully, who was winless in three starts for Clive Cox in Britain before being sold for £90,000 and sent to Jeff Mullins on the west coast.

She hasn't managed to get in front for her new connections just yet but has run well on all four occasions at Santa Anita in maiden special weight company and now drops down in class.

Predictable Tully hasn't appreciated running over a mile of late and the drop to 5½f looks highly likely to suit given her British form. Her draw in gate three is another positive.

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