US racing tips: Tom Collins naps a class-dropper on a tough card at Gulfstream
Wicked Solution
8.49 Gulfstream Park
1pt winOvernight Success
9.52 Gulfstream Park
2pts winSunday night's card at Gulfstream Park looks extremely competitive and far from the easiest to decipher, but with all turf races likely to remain on the grass as the Florida weather behaves itself, it is worth trying to find the value.
The $23,000 claimer (8.49), which will be run over 1m½f, looks a wide-open affair on paper with 12 rivals set to go to post and the 3-1 morning line favourite, Miss My Macho, drawn widest of all.
Although she has the best recent form in the book courtesy of a cosy win over the reopposing Lady Noguez in this grade last time out, she had the perfect position throughout in that contest and it is unlikely she will be able to sit on the shoulder of the leader once again.
Lady Noguez is an interesting rival and she is drawn inside her foe in gate nine, but she tends to hang under pressure in the straight at this venue and it is hard to support her with any kind of confidence.
That being the case, there should prove to be a touch of value elsewhere and the piece of form that catches the eye is from a claimer at this venue on April 3.
The winner that day, Interest, was sent off a skinny 4-5 shot and was given a brilliant ride by Luis Saez, who sat on the heels of the leaders before making his move round the bend.
Despite her short odds and perfect run through, Interest didn't exactly impress with his finishing kick and was almost run down by 12-1 shot Wicked Solution, who had to endure a six-wide trip.
The pair face off once again and now that Interest has moved from Saffie Joseph to the lesser-known Daniel Hurtak, as well as the fact that Wicked Solution will probably get a better trip than last time, I fancy the form to be reversed.
Wicked Solution has a good record of two wins from five starts at this venue, gets on well with up-and-coming rider Miguel Vasquez and has the necessary tactical speed to get into a workable position from gate seven.
Put a line through her penultimate effort when she clearly didn't run to form and she should be the favourite for this race. A five-furlong work here eight days ago will have her spot on.
Although he is likely to be a short price (8-5 on the morning line), Overnight Success rates the best bet on the card for trainer Louie Roussel in the $20,000 claimer (9.52).
Formerly trained by Jason Servis and owned by Gary and Mary West, the combination that are best known for their exploits with Maximum Security last year, Overnight Success proved himself to be a useful colt in 2018 with a comfortable victory in a maiden waiver claimer at Saratoga.
He has clearly had his problems since as he's made just three starts in the last 15 months, but he performed well on his return in March when second of four at the Fair Grounds and is taken to build on that now dropped even further down in class.
A speedy son of Giant's Causeway, Overnight Success should be able to get into a good early position behind likely leader Congrats That, who is drawn widest of all, and can pounce in the straight.
I'm not a huge fan of rider Edgar Prado, but he is on the best horse in this race and I will just hope that he stays away from his beloved rail when he goes to make his challenge.
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