US expert Tom Collins looks for horses who may lead all the way on Friday

Talkthetalk
8.13 Gulfstream Park
2pts win

Federale
9.35 Tampa Bay Downs
2pts win

So Long Chuck
10.19 Gulfstream Park
1pt win

More rain is expected in Florida on Friday which could mean that all turf races will switch to the dirt at both Gulfstream Park and Tampa Bay Downs, consequently resulting in a long list of non-runners.

It is best to stick to the main track dirt contests at both meets, especially given there appears to be a couple of likely all-the-way winners with attractive morning line prices.

The first of those is the former Jane Cibelli-trained Talkthetalk, who will make her first start for the Jose Garoffalo barn in the $20,000 claimer (8.13).

Garoffalo could do with a winner after just two successes in the first five months of 2020, but this daughter of Revolutionary could easily rack up a sequence in this kind of company and is a shrewd pick-up.

Although she has won just once from 13 outings, she has hit the frame on five other occasions and seems to have been poorly placed by her former handler.

The fact that she was kept in maiden special weight company for six of her first seven races was probably a poor move in hindsight and she had to make the trip to Delaware Park to finally get off the mark, routing a field of six over this trip in all-the-way fashion.

Cibelli clearly thought a lot of Talkthetalk as the talented trainer pitched her into black type company on the back of that first success, and Talkistalk didn't let her down by finishing third in the Weathervane Stakes at Laurel Park in September.

Five consecutive defeats have followed that effort but she has shown good early speed at this venue on her third- and second-last outings before fading, and you can put a line through her latest start when she stumbled badly at the start and lost all chance.

She was heavily punted into favouritism that day and although she bobbled badly, she regained her stride to lead the field early on. Those early exertions took their toll in the end and she was beaten into second.

Moving stables is sure to have helped Talkistalk and this looks a great bit of race planning from Garoffalo, who has booked Irad Ortiz to get the job done at the first time of asking. Expect her to make all.

You will have to wait until the final race on the Tampa Bay Downs card for the best bet at the track, which is Federale in the $14,500 claimer (9.35).

Second in a Delaware maiden special weight contest in May last year, trainer Philip Gleaves hatched an ambitious plan and entered him in the Listed Tremont Stakes at Belmont Park on his next outing, where Federale ran exceptionally well to take fourth having led the strong field a merry dance early on.

He was stuffed on his next start in a tough maiden at Saratoga, but returned from an eight-month absence with a good third at this track in March, where he was beaten by a sharp first-time starter.

That race was run in a hot time and he was justifiably sent off at 2-5 for his latest outing, where he made most of the running to win impressively.

He was a bit awkward out of the gates that day and required plenty of rousting along, but he stayed very well and should be shorter than his morning line price of 5-2 despite the fact he now faces winners.

It is back to Gulfstream Park for the final selection, which is perennial front-runner So Long Chuck in the $17,000 mile claimer (10.13).

Victor Barboza's six-year-old has only one way of running, and being off the front-end is usually a big help when the dirt turns to slop. Although he is drawn in gate ten, rider Emisael Jaramillo will bang him out into an early lead and hopefully he can cling on to that advantage.

He is a bit in-and-out but his speed figures at this track in August and September are the best on offer in this field, while his latest third was a clear step back in the right direction.

Blakely is a big danger under Luis Saez but I'd rather take the 6-1 morning line price on So Long Chuck than 3-1 for that rival.

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