Paul Kealy fancies a novice to take another forward step over fences at Thurles

Mary Frances
2.10 Thurles
1pt win

Dallas Des Pictons
3.10 Thurles
1pt win

There may well be no racing in Britain for some time to come and it is anyone’s guess how long it will go on behind closed doors in Ireland, but given we’re all locked away with nothing to do, a five-race televised card from Thurles provides some welcome relief.

Other than that it was going to have be some decorating, which invariably proves more expensive than punting after Mrs K has decided we have to get someone in to do a proper job after I’ve messed it up.

It’s a good little card at Thurles, particularly the feature Grade 3 Pierce Molony Memorial Novice Chase (3.10).

The upwardly mobile Sizing Potttsie heads the market, having won his last two over fences by wide margins, the latest in a Grade 3 by 12 lengths from the reopposing Cut The Mustard.

Chasing was obviously the short and long-term plan for Jessica Harrington’s six-year-old as he hadn’t even run over hurdles until November and had just two starts in that sphere.

Although he unseated on his debut when well beaten behind Melon in December, jumping has since proved to be his strength. The question is whether he will be so effective on drying ground as it was very deep for each of his wins and that is what is said to suit him.

He now also has a 6lb penalty to contend with in a deeper contest than last time, so while he is arguably still the one to beat, he doesn’t make too much appeal at the prices.

Nor really does Emmet Mullins’s Zero Ten, who was constantly outjumped by Cash Back when beaten 12 lengths by him at Naas in January and then fell four out when odds-on for a weak race at Punchestown.

The one to back is surely , for Gordon Elliott, who had such a good Cheltenham Festival.

This seven-year-old was not among the Elliott raiding party at Cheltenham last week due to the somewhat controversial – according to connections anyway – decision of the BHA handicapper to award him a mark 12lb higher than his Irish rating over fences.

Owner Michael O’Leary, never shy when it comes to venting his spleen at the British handicapper, duly did so, and even Elliott said he couldn’t understand where the mark, 147 compared to 135 in Ireland, had come from.

However, connections were surely living in cloud cuckoo land if they thought the BHA assessor was going to let Dallas Des Pictons run off anywhere near 135 given he’d gone up to 148 over hurdles for finishing an extremely well backed second in the Martin Pipe last year.

He was going to need a lot more evidence than just three runs over fences at the time (one a 20-length win) to consider a major drop and the latest evidence suggests he was probably right.

That’s because two days before the festival started Dallas Des Pictons was sent to Naas for a Grade 3 and was beaten only a length in fourth, running to a Racing Post Rating (146) just 3lb shy of his previous best over hurdles.

That tells only half the story, too, because Dallas Des Pictons was the only one still on the bridle going to the second-last (he was trading at around 4-6 on Betfair at that point), but went straight through it and actually did well to finish so close.

That was in first-time blinkers, which are retained, and other than that late error, his jumping was largely excellent.

On that evidence there is no reason why he won’t go on to be at least as good over fences as he was over hurdles despite his slow start and, even if this 2m2f is a shade shorter than ideal, early quotes of 8-1 are a fair bit bigger than I would have expected.

The BetVictor Hurdle (2.10) is harder to unravel, largely because of the presence of the Mullins-trained Karl Der Grosse, who is favourite in many lists despite not having run for over a year and not having the form to put him anywhere near the head of the market.

That is because he is so lightly raced and he did look potentially decent on his Irish debut at Tramore in August 2018, although he was odds-on in a race that didn’t work out.

He was a beaten favourite next time at Galway and then must have gone badly wrong when pulled up four out at Thurles later that season.

It’s anyone’s guess what to make of him now, but I’m tempted to treat him as what he looks like on paper, and that is not good enough and in the wrong place in the market.

Instead I suggest simply backing the form horse, which at these weights is surely for Martin Hassett.

She may have been outclassed in a couple of Graded events in December and January, but her other three runs this season show her in a good light in the context of this race.

They include a second to last week’s Pertemps runner-up The Storyteller at Clonmel and a commanding win in a Pertemps qualifier at Punchestown last month.

If she can match the 140 RPR she recorded for each of those runs, then at these weights (and not including her useful 7lb claimer) everything else will have to run a career best to beat her.

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