It just makes sense - back Apple's Shakira to triumph

For someone who rarely bets at short prices, the following tip may come as a surprise, especially considering I’m advising backing a horse for a race at 4-1 for a race in 115 days time.

However, the manner of Apple’s Shakira’s victory in Saturday’s Grade 2 JCB Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle and the landscape of the juvenile hurdle division has convinced me that simply: it just makes sense.

The money came for JP McManus’s filly, who came into this with a lofty reputation, and considering her connections, who have an exemplary record in the Triumph – Barry Geraghty (five) and Nicky Henderson (six) – were so animated in their debriefs, you know she’s the real deal.

Her sister, the much-decorated, five-time Grade 1-winner Apple’s Jade finished second to Ivanovich Gorbatov in 2016 and I’m convinced this filly can go one better.

I think too much has been made of her hitting a slight flat spot, as she put herself right at the hurdle at the top of the hill – overall her bold jumping looked to be one of her biggest assets – and was simply regathering her momentum as the experienced Gumball stretched on.

Once back on an even keel she annihilated the opposition on the bridle. 17 lengths was the final margin and as barometers go, at present we don’t have any better than Gumball, who recorded an RPR of 135 on his previous start. In recent years later-appearing Adonis winners don’t tend to cut the mustard in the Triumph, nor do they have the valuable benefit of course experience.

It’s difficult to be confident Ireland have anything that can give her 7lb. Second favourite Espoir D’Allen also races in the green and gold, but his jumping doesn’t impress you would struggle to see Geraghty picking Gavin Cromwell’s horse under the conditions and Gordon Elliott said "if he was able to win the Triumph Hurdle I would be surprised", after Mitchouka's last win.

On RPRs Apple's Shakira put up a 5lb better performance than the one Defi Du Seuil produced in this race last year, and I anticipate she will go down the same route and return to Cheltenham both in December and January before the big one beckons in March.

Comparing her to last year’s Triumph winner, Geraghty said: “she’s more to learn, he knew his job”, if that is the case, and she progresses as expected in the coming months, the future is very frightening indeed for her rivals.