I'm sticking to my guns despite usually having a nightmare on the Knavesmire

There’s no easy way to say this, but I find York the most difficult track to punt at.

I don’t know whether it’s the long straight, the complexity of the big-field handicaps or the influence of the draw, but I rarely seem to get races right on the Knavesmire.

There have been some memorable exceptions. I would have to have been pretty diabolical to get Space Blues beaten off a mark of 93 in 2019, and I landed a touch when Postponed won the 2016 Juddmonte, but the track has largely been a reliable source of woe for me.

I can’t be the only one, either, as we often see some almighty shocks there. I was on course when Arabian Queen just kept finding to deny Golden Horn in the 2015 Juddmonte, and surely few people could have seen Alpha Delphini nosing out Mabs Cross, Blue Point and Battaash in the 2018 Nunthorpe.

My record says I’m probably not the best person to ask for advice at York, but I think one of the worst things you can do as a punter is overcomplicate your analysis. This is horseracing after all and its unpredictability is often its beauty.

If you stick by your usual punting principles then you will land on a winner before too long, whereas if you change your approach you will only kick yourself when the one you nearly sided with duly goes in.

Ever Present misbehaves before the start on his seasonal return at Down RoyalCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

I tipped Ever Present for Saturday’s Ebor in these pages a few weeks ago and while he could have done more on his comeback at Down Royal, there were excuses and that was surely a prep for Saturday in every way, so I wasn’t too disheartened.

He drifted before the off and played up in the stalls beforehand, which he hadn’t done before, and was then squeezed for room when coming with his run. He comes to life in big fields – his only previous defeat on the Flat came against five others – and I still believe he could prove much better than his mark.

As for the other big races, I would be a layer rather than a backer of Baaeed at the prices in the Juddmonte International because I don’t think he’s faced anything like the calibre of Mishriff before, and I don’t believe the hype that he’s anywhere near Frankel's standard either.

Perhaps strangely, I was most impressed by what he did on his first start this season in the Lockinge, as at Ascot and Goodwood he looked as if he was having to exert himself more.

As horses get older they often only do what they have to do, but of course that is open to interpretation and when you’re punting at odds-on you have to consider every possibility.

I’m prepared to be wrong, but for now I’ll listen to my gut, which says Mishriff could give him plenty to think about.

Mishriff: Maddy's pick to trouble Baaeed in the Juddmonte InternationalCredit: Edward Whitaker

Declarations will reveal more, but I was pleasantly surprised when I looked at the Yorkshire Oaks afresh on Monday.

Even with Emily Upjohn’s defection, the race has a few interesting strands to it. Firstly, it will be a good opportunity to see Alpinista on home soil. She will have to give 9lb to decent fillies like Magical Lagoon, Tuesday and the supplemented Raclette, while La Petite Coco is no back number from her generation either.

Alpinista is an uncomplicated, strong stayer and while I’d favour her to come out on top, I must give a mention to the 25-1 shot Poptronic for Karl Burke. She has won two of her three starts this summer despite pulling like a train and can definitely be competitive if she settles.

If you have a strong view in the Nunthorpe then you’re much braver than I am because I really struggle to know what on earth to think.

I was taken aback with what Royal Aclaim did over the course and distance in the City Walls Stakes but, for all our sprinters aren’t an outstanding bunch, this should be much harder and there isn’t any juice in the 6-4 odds on offer.

Last week I followed my own advice of trying to look at things simply and thought the bonny Highfield Princess could just be a cut above after her maiden Group 1 success in the Prix Maurice de Gheest.

However, she was beaten on her only previous start over five furlongs and the Nunthorpe got a generous dollop of intrigue added to it when two-year-old filly and course-and-distance winner The Platinum Queen was supplemented.

The ratings say she should have this in the bag getting upwards of 22lb from her rivals, and she looked worthy of a place in this line-up when lowering the juvenile track record at Goodwood.

However, she was soundly beaten in the Queen Mary by Dramatised, who was also a short price for this before connections opted for the Lowther against her own age and sex, and only two juveniles have won this since 1956. Lyric Fantasy was the only filly in 1992.

The draw will tell us more, but last year’s winner Winter Power may not allow her to dominate from the front and while it makes a lot of sense from a numbers perspective, there isn’t enough value in 3-1 for me to get involved.

I’ll monitor things throughout the week and potentially have a punt on one of the outsiders. York doesn’t look like getting anywhere near enough rain for him, but keep an eye on Ainsdale, who ran a race full of promise on his debut for Julie Camacho last time.

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