'I'm convinced he could have at least 10lb in hand off his revised rating'

Celebre D'Allen
Paddy Power Plate, March 17
1pt win at 8-1 generally

I was blown away on Saturday and it wasn’t by Eldorado Allen, Funambule Sivola or Glory And Fortune.

Celebre D’Allen is the horse in question and he’s going to crop up in most of my conversations in the next month running up to the Cheltenham Festival.

Now in the care of Philip Hobbs, Celebre D’Allen started his career with David Pipe for whom he ran in a couple of bumpers – he cantered all over Sam Brown and Lalor in a decent race at Wincanton – before transferring to France and winning a Listed handicap hurdle as a six-year-old for Louisa Carberry.

He reached a decent standard over hurdles and fences on that side of the Channel, recording a peak Racing Post Rating of 135, and returned to Britain in October after a 783-day break.

Celebre D'Allen: unbeaten in three runs since returning to Britain this seasonCredit: John Grossick

He bolted up in two heavy ground handicap hurdles at Haydock, recording a RPR of 140 without breaking sweat in late December, and on Saturday was well punted into 5-2 to make a successful transition to chasing in a well-contested handicap off a mark of 135.

The same race has been won by Camping Ground (peak rating of 157), Taquin Du Seuil (161), Clondaw Castle (160) and Two For Gold (154), who will run in the Grade 1 Ascot Chase on Saturday.

Celebre D’Allen was given an extremely cold winning ride by Tom O’Brien, tactics which are challenging to pull off at Warwick, where the tight turns and quick run of fences put horses under pressure as they begin to quicken, but he managed it expertly and was clearly value for much more.

He was beating good horses too. I’d backed the front-running Wishing And Hoping, who should have another decent handicap in him at a left-handed track, while topweight Amoola Gold finished third and was worth chancing in a Grade 1 last time. Jacamar and Falco Blitz have also won this season so the form looks strong.

The fact he was so strongly supported before the off suggests connections had a good idea of just how well handicapped he was.

What makes the case even stronger is Celebre D’Allen’s owner, Allan Stennett, won the Paddy Power Plate with Salut Flo in 2012 and Ballynagour in 2014 and unsurprisingly that race has already been confirmed as his target.

Salut Flo was backed off the boards in the build-up to his festival victory – going off the 9-2 favourite – and, while Ballynagour went off at 12-1 for his win, he was the 7-2 favourite when 11th in the race in 2013. Monetaire, who also ran in the Stennett colours, was sent off 11-2 favourite in 2015 when finding just Darna too good.

It is therefore no surprise to see he has been well backed all week since his Warwick success, but there is still plenty of juice left in the 8-1 – especially considering his owner’s history in the race. He could be half that price on the day.

The handicapper has raised Celebre D’Allen 6lb to 141, an ideal mark for this particular test. The last ten winners shouldered the following marks: 137, 136, 140, 140, 142, 145, 147, 141, 149, 140.

Although he’s a ten-year-old, he’s still relatively lightly raced having had just 17 starts, six of which have come over fences, and just one in this country.

He is versatile when it comes to ground conditions, as he proved when winning on good to soft on Saturday and he has a potent mix of speed and stamina which should serve him well in a race as hectic as the Plate. His dam was related to a 4m4½f cross country chase winner so the Cheltenham hill should be the least of his worries.

Celebre D'Allen (left) mowed down Wishing And Hoping with ease at Warwick on SaturdayCredit: Steve Davies

The British aren’t bad at targeting the race either as they have trumped Ireland in six of the last ten runnings. The current favourite Shan Blue is reportedly going straight for the Ryanair and one of the next best in is Imperial Alcazar, who is up to 152 after his impressive win on Trials day.

I find it hard to believe he could give Celebre D’Allen 11lb, while plenty of the Irish novices in the market have been running creditably in top company, meaning they might not be hiding much from the handicapper, particularly considering last year’s drubbing.

I’m convinced Celebre D’Allen could have at least 10lb in hand off his revised rating and, to use a cliche, if he were trained by Willie Mullins or Nicky Henderson he’d probably be half his current price.

Hobbs has been in much better form this season and is hardly a stranger to winning at the festival, and now could be the time to get involved before the entries are revealed next Tuesday.

Mint Condition catches the eye in National Trial at Haydock

I am planning to keep my powder dry for the next couple of weeks, but there are a few horses who interest me if they’re declared this weekend.

The first is Mint Condition in the Grand National Trial (2.40) at Haydock on Saturday. He’s a novice, so is far less exposed than most of these, including at this marathon trip.

He’s also run some of his best races at the track. He was fourth in the Prestige Novices’ Hurdle here and should be two from two at the course this year given he went down by just a neck to Kiltealy Briggs in early December.

Presuming topweight Bristol De Mai runs, Mint Condition will carry just 10st 4lb and, while he’s not guaranteed to have loads in hand off this mark, he clearly has potential for this trip given the way he races and high-class staying performers Dedigout and Winning Noora feature in his pedigree.

Mint Condition: 14-1 chance is unexposed over extreme distances and tends to run his best races at HaydockCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

In the opening race (1.00) the well-bred The Edgar Wallace catches my eye.

He came on my radar with some smart efforts as a novice hurdler but looks capable of even better over fences and he made a good start when winning at Market Rasen in November.

He was raised only 3lb for that success, which could look lenient given three of his four rivals have won since.

Staying will be this horse’s forte and 2m4f on heavy ground should be right up his street at this stage of his career.

At Ascot I’m intrigued by the Dan Skelton-trained Lucky One, who is entered in the 2m3½f handicap hurdle (3.00).

He has been dropped 10lb in two runs for the trainer, who is renowned for his prowess in races like this, and he was going well when he came down in the Top Novices’ Hurdle before falling four-out last year.

He’s a freegoing sort who always had the potential to go missing, but I refuse to believe he’s a lost cause as he’s only seven and hasn’t had much racing.

He recorded a peak RPR of 140, so a mark of 127 looks well worth exploiting at some point.

Wynn House (4.10) should also be up to winning off her mark of 124 and I was surprised the handicapper dropped her 1lb for running on strongly behind Martello Sky and Indefatigable in December.

That was a strong race and she really rallied under pressure to finish fourth, and her stable wasn’t in particularly good form at the time whereas they are now. This should be much easier.

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