Breeders' Cup betting: use this strategy to take advantage of commingled pools

Domestic punters will be able to bet into the local pools at this weekend's Breeders' Cup, with the UK Tote simulcasting with Santa Anita for the weekend.

This is similar to the World Pool, but with some crucial differences. As this is not a full World Pool card, there will not be a significant weight of cash from jurisdictions like Hong Kong and France. This will affect the balance of the pools. In all likelihood, US-based runners will be favoured, although the worldwide renown of the likes of Aidan O'Brien and the Gosdens means their runners are not going to return monster dividends.

The biggest discrepancies between bookmaker odds and Tote returns could be on foreign raiders who lack a global profile. In the most exciting race on the card to Europeans, the Breeders' Cup Turf (9.50), this factor can be worked into your betting strategy.

The likes of Mostahdaf and King Of Steel have not had this race as their first option and have been handed dicey draws. Meanwhile, Auguste Rodin is fresh and will break from stall five. His profile is pretty binary but he is clearly a big talent who has a lot in his favour.

The Derby winner might well return as favourite. It is unlikely that Arc third Onesto, who has been given a pure autumn campaign this year, and the similarly campaigned Japanese star Shahryar will be so popular. The latter does not offer us much recent form to go on, but deserves to be taken seriously even on his Dubai Turf run in March, when he was fifth behind Equinox.

In the States, exotics like the boxed exacta (reversed/combination forecast) are among the most popular and I will be playing those three in a bid to capitalise on the imbalance in the US pools.

Recommended bet
9.50 Santa Anita

1 Shahryar
2 Onesto
5 Auguste Rodin

Boxed exacta (six bets)

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