Chaser weighted to cause an upset on tacky ground

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3.00 Newbury
2pts winNo Buts
3.15 Warwick
2pts win at 8-1 with bet365, Betfair, Betway, Coral, LadbrokesBallyandy
3.35 Newbury
2pts win at 5-1 with Betway (9-2 bet365, Betfred, Hills, Ladbrokes, 188Bet)As James Pyman pointed out in Friday’s Racing Post, the winner of the Betfair Hurdle (3.35 Newbury) is likely to need to run to a figure around 10lb higher than its pre-race mark, so it’s no surprise the race is more often than not won by an unexposed type, with four of the last six winners having been novices.

Two of the first three in the betting are novices, so this has hardly escaped the bookies, but I don’t think there’s a likelier victor than Ballyandy, who will prove a desperately disappointing winner of the 2016 Champion Bumper if a mark of 135 is as good as he is.

The average peak Racing Post Rating of Champion Bumper winners within four starts over obstacles is 143 and that figure is dragged down by a few real flops, such as Liberman, who ran to only 106.