'Start with the rank outsider and work backwards' - form study tips from the best

Betting on Racing is an app-exclusive daily punting guide from three of the Racing Post's most renowned experts: Tom Segal, Paul Kealy and David Jennings. A new instalment will be published every weekday for the next three weeks.

How you approach race study probably defines what type of punter you are and it's near certain that a lot of people start with the favourite and don't get much further, meaning they very rarely back outsiders.

My modus operandi has changed over the years as I once used to tell everyone it was best to start by trying to identify the favourite and then see if there are enough negatives to take it on.

The change has come about largely because we now have 48-hour declarations all year round and many of the races I tend to focus on have already been priced up by the time I get to look at them.

I also used to always order my racecards by the top Racing Post Rating as that would jumble up the prices and give you an idea that, on best pieces of form over the past 12 months at least, races are a lot more open than the betting suggests.

Nowadays, though, I simply start with what I call an 'upside-down' card with the outsiders at the top.

At this stage I ought to point out that I'm not simply looking to be a contrarian who backs outsiders all the time for the sake of it.

Far from it in fact, as I'm firmly of the belief that if you think a price is wrong you should attack it wherever it is in the market.

That said, I'll be honest and say I do get a lot more satisfaction out of digging one out that others may not have thought about, and you're only going to do that if you look at all the horses.

It would be so easy to start with the favourite and work your way down, but most of us are inherently lazy and we will stop at the first one we like.

For that reason I force myself to look at everything and the only way I can guarantee I'll do that is to start with the rank outsider and work backwards.

There's nothing more annoying than seeing a horse win at 25-1 and then going back and looking at its form and seeing that a case could easily be made.

What you're always looking for is the same as for any horse in any race really, namely:

• Does it have the form to be competitive under current conditions?
• How recent is that form?
• How many times has it failed to reproduce it under the same conditions?
• Are there reasons for believing it will perform better this time?

It's worth remembering that races are priced up these days with such rapidity that it's near impossible for them to have been framed with any degree of rigour.

Always in the punters' advantage is the fact we can pick and choose what races we bet on and can have a far deeper look into them before we do.

Tomorrow: David Jennings on the Irish training heavyweights

Read more in our Betting on Racing series:

Tom Segal: get to know trainers, their methods and what big races they target