100-1 into 8-1: Patrick Veitch and one of the biggest gambles of the modern era

From 10 to 1, our countdown of the greatest gambles of all time. A new instalment will be published every weekday for the next fortnight. Today – No.8: Exponential and the 2004 Wright Brothers Maiden Auction Stakes

The background

When Exponential was bought at the Doncaster breeze-up sales for 27,000gns in April 2004, no-one envisaged he would be a million-pound winner barely four months later. Yet that was exactly what he became thanks to the intricate planning of owner Patrick Veitch and trainer Stuart Williams, who executed one of the biggest gambles of the modern era.

Newmarket-based Williams soon realised Exponential had ability and told Veitch, a renowned professional punter, that the sprint-bred juvenile was capable of landing a touch.

Armed with his network of agents drilled to place bets in various places with precision timing, Veitch – whose ownership of Exponential was hidden behind a partnership name – pulled off what he described as the most dramatic coup of his punting career and "the one bet where I got everything right".

The build-up

Not all the early signs were good. The Williams stable was out of form, with just two winners in five months before Exponential's first run in early July, and the youngster had shown enough quirkiness to convince the trainer he would need headgear to help him concentrate. It was no surprise when Exponential, wearing blinkers and an eyeshield, finished last of 13 at 25-1 on his debut in a Beverley maiden.

This suited Veitch's plans perfectly. There was nothing positive for punters and race-readers to draw from this first run, ensuring Exponential would be ignored next time. Meanwhile, Williams' string started to hit form and the trainer became convinced Exponential could not only win a maiden easily but might well be up to Listed class the following season.

Exponential's second race would be at Nottingham on August 16, when many eyes were looking towards that week's York Ebor meeting, and it was time for the gamble to swing into action.

Exponential, again fitted with blinkers and an eyeshield, opened at 100-1 on course for the five-furlong maiden auction at Nottingham and was even longer at 179-1 on Betfair. Veitch was delighted. As he related in his book Enemy Number One, "we had a horse who was written off on form, on his premature headgear and because the experts were convinced that the trainer's modus operandi was focused on handicaps. A watertight stable and owner ensured that no-one had sprung the trap early."

Springing the trap at the time of Veitch's choosing was now crucial. Ten minutes before the race, he gave his agents their instructions, which ranged from bets of £240 each-way to ten times that amount. As the odds started to contract, a second wave of bets hit bookies who were prepared to lay from 33-1 down to 16-1, thinking the value had gone, and then a third wave targeted the exchange market.

The race

Exponential went off at 8-1, still only fifth favourite in a field of 15, and in just over a minute he put the final piece in the jigsaw.

The winning margin was a length but that didn't do justice to his superiority. Always close up, he was in front more than a furlong from home and never looked like getting caught, winning with a bit in hand.

Questions were asked about his dramatic improvement from his debut just over six weeks earlier. But having heard Williams' explanation that the juvenile had benefited from the experience of his first run and had time to strengthen up in between the two races, the stewards did not take the matter further.

The Jockey Club, then the regulatory body, found nothing untoward in their inquiries among major bookmakers and betting exchanges. "The gamble appears to have been carefully orchestrated and could be described as an old-fashioned betting coup adapted to exploit 21st century betting opportunities," said spokesman John Maxse.

Veitch reckons the total sum won by him and his associates was around £500,000. Ladbrokes alone reported losing £160,000 on the race. "If including the bets of those who followed in on the gamble, I would guess the total won on Exponential was somewhere north of a million pounds," Veitch said in his book.

The aftermath

Exponential never made it to Listed class, winning only once more in a 17-race career that yielded just £6,646 in prize-money. Instead Williams would have to wait another seven years for a Listed success, but his career continues to go from strength to strength with half-century totals in three of the last four seasons.

The scores

Audacity This was low-hanging fruit – but it's still fairly audacious to go for it with a horse who had nothing but a last place to show to date. 6

Ingenuity Brilliant planning and execution from Patrick Veitch. 8

Ease of win A comfortable length. 6

Money won A cool £500,000 for Veitch and his associates. 5

Gamble marks 25

Read more in our Greatest Gambles series:

Reveillez (9): 'I couldn't let him run loose at 6-1!' - JP McManus makes a fortune at Cheltenham 

Great Things (10): 'Don't bother coming back if you get beat' - Albert Davison's Leicester words