Why 14-1 is too big for this popular veteran in the Stayers' Hurdle

A common gripe is that there is no value in ante-post markets anymore, but with so much action over the Christmas period there is always the possibility a few performances have fallen through the cracks.

If it's value you're looking for then you have to be prepared to look outside the box and beyond the common line of thinking, and a few horses stand out in this regard.

The first is Impaire Et Passe, who made a shining Irish debut at Naas on December 20 and could be his stablemate Facile Vega's biggest challenger in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle.

He earned a Racing Post Rating of 143 for an 18-length win, better than what Klassical Dream and Appreciate It achieved on their hurdling debuts and on a par with what Douvan did on his Irish bow when beating Sizing John.

Many would think that as a 2m3f winner the Ballymore would be the five-year-old's obvious festival target. However, Willie Mullins also has proven stayer Grangeclare West, who is entered in Sunday's Lawlor's Of Naas Novice Hurdle, for that, and in suggesting the Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle the trainer provided punters with a possible cue.

Mullins won the race with subsequent Ballymore winner Mikael D'Haguenet in 2009, but has more recently used it as a springboard for his Supreme hopes, with winners Vautour, Douvan, Min, Getabird and Dysart Dynamo all taking in the festival opener afterwards.

You have to go back to 2011 to find the last time Mullins had just one runner in the Supreme and, while Facile Vega has looked very classy, his jumping wasn't without alarm last time and you're not going to become rich backing him at a best-priced 5-6.

Instead consider investing in Impaire Et Passe at 16-1 each-way and hope the odds fall in your favour when the Mullins pack reshuffles closer to the time.

Another race to look at is the open-looking Stayers' Hurdle, which is headed by Christmas Hurdle winner Home By The Lee at 6-1. He proved his 28-1 strike in the Lismullen Hurdle no fluke when mowing down Ashdale Bob at Leopardstown and is now the rightful favourite for festival glory.

However, when you consider Blazing Khal and Klassical Dream are next in, with the former yet to be sighted this season due to injury, it is a wonder how the 2019 winner Paisley Park can be backed at 14-1.

Paisley Park: successful in the rescheduled Long Walk Hurdle at KemptonCredit: Alan Crowhurst

He has enjoyed something of a resurgence this winter but the figures suggest there has been substance to his performances. He improved on his Long Distance Hurdle second to win a third Long Walk Hurdle, this time at a track surely sharper than ideal.

What he did at Kempton was better than what Home By The Lee achieved at Leopardstown on RPRs and he beat him comprehensively when third in the Stayers' Hurdle last year, yet he's ten points bigger in the market.

Age is against Paisley Park as the last 11-year-old to win the Stayers' was Crimson Embers in 1986, while at eight Home By The Lee is open to more improvement.

However, Paisley Park has enjoyed a much better preparation this campaign, with his Kempton performance better than anything he has achieved since 2020. Connections have said he's as good as they've ever had him and he's already beaten the best of what Britain has to offer.

With that in mind, a fourth Cleeve Hurdle looks easily within the realms of possibility later this month and success there would see his odds tumble again.

Mares key to Henderson's novice ranks

Nicky Henderson has won Saturday's Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle more than any other trainer, including last year with the scintillating Supreme winner Constitution Hill.

Therefore it is interesting he has chosen to enter just one horse for this year's race in Luccia, who is ante-post favourite for the Mares' Novices' Hurdle.

Those familiar with this column will know I made the argument she should be under serious consideration for the Supreme following her impressive debut, and it will be interesting to see how she fares if lining up against the boys on Saturday.

With former Supreme second favourite Jet Powered hugely disappointing on New Year's Eve, the option of exploiting Luccia's 7lb allowance in open company is clearly a tempting proposition for Henderson. If she were to run well in the Tolworth, the Supreme would surely become a realistic aim.

Another star mare could emerge from Seven Barrows this week as Between Waters, who was purchased by Doreen Tabor after impressing in a point-to-point, is entered in a 2m5f maiden hurdle at Ludlow on Friday.

The daughter of Walk In The Park has been the recipient of plenty of hype and is around 16-1 for the Mares' Novices' Hurdle. As more of a staying prospect, perhaps she could fill the void if Luccia goes elsewhere.

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