US racing tips: Tom Collins focuses on one horse at Tampa Bay Downs

Dreams Of Shirley
8.00 Tampa Bay Downs
2pts win

With no Antonio Gallardo or Samy Camacho riding at the Tampa Bay Downs meet on Monday, we are left with eight low-quality affairs with not much in the way of great jockeyship to help split the runners.

Consequently, it is wise to play safe on the card and I will be targeting just the one race for betting purposes, which is the $10,000 maiden claimer (8.00).

You can pretty much put a line through at least six of the nine-strong field on form, which leaves you with Play The Max, and Silver Nina, who wasn't sighted on her debut at this track last time.

The former is interesting given she represents leading trainer Gerald Bennett, who fits first-time blinkers to his four-year-old, and boasts blistering early pace. However, she looks completely tripless and seriously disappointed on her return to the track just over two weeks ago.

She was sent off as the 7-5 favourite that day and broke well from gate one as Bennett dropped her to 5½f. Play The Max showed good speed to duel for the lead, setting a rapid opening fraction of 21.54sec, before capitulating entering the homestraight.

She clearly can't sustain her pace for very long at all and can't be considered a betting proposition.

Nine places ahead of her that day was Dreams Of Shirley, who is strongly fancied to confirm the form under regular rider Augusto Marin.

She wasn't exactly far off the pace that day but stuck to her guns well and was only beaten by a runaway winner who recorded a very quick time.

A repeat effort would see her sit in second or third behind the aforementioned Bennett-trained filly and pounce in the stretch run. That looks a serious possibility.

If you put a line through her penultimate effort when she was badly bumped at the start, Dreams Of Shirley would be coming into this weak affair with form figures of 332 and be sent off an even-money shot, so her morning line price of 2-1 looks fair.

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