The Evening Punt: Tom Collins' free horse racing tips on Saturday

AMERICAN BANKER

Bellafina (10.06 Saratoga)

There's likely to be a fast pace in this fillies' Group 1 with Covfefe and Serengeti Empress both at their best off the front end and that can set it up for Bellafina, who will probably stalk them in third or fourth before pouncing. Simon Callaghan's three-time Group 1 winner is unbeaten when racing away from Churchill Downs (6-6, 0-2 at Churchill) and would be a short-priced jolly if she didn't disappoint at that track when last seen. She wasn't disgraced in finishing fourth, but it's safe to say she doesn't handle the Downs as well as elsewhere, and the drop to seven furlongs is also in her favour. She is shipping out to the east coast, so there's a slight question mark there, but she is the best in the race and should have it run to suit.

GOOD THING

Bay Watch (6.35 Lingfield)

Tracey Barfoot-Saunt has revitalised this five-year-old, who was 0-12 before joining her and looking fully exposed but has won both starts since. He showed nothing before coming from last to first in a Bath sprint on his first start over five and a half furlongs, shocking punters with a 40-1 victory, and duly backed that up over the minimum trip at Salisbury off the same mark. He's been hit with a 10lb rise now, but he has won with such ease the last twice that suggests he could record the hat-trick without turning a hair.

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