Shrewd small trainer can down big guns with 33-1 shot in Cesarewitch

Favorite Moon
Cesarewitch Handicap, October 8
1pt each-way at 33-1 generally

There is every chance either Adagio or Ahorsewithnoname are absolutely chucked in for next weekend's Club Godolphin Cesarewitch (3.40) and Waterville is sure to be popular after Sunday's last-to-first win in the Irish equivalent, but to me there's little fun in backing at single-figure prices ante-post.

In the last ten years the marathon handicap has thrown up horses at 66-1 (twice), 50-1 and 25-1, so it's worth shopping around for a diamond in the rough and I am hopeful I have found one who can outrun his odds.

Remarkably, his trainer has a 100 per cent record in Britain in the last year as he scooped a major handicap with a 12-1 shot in March. Admittedly that came over jumps when Screaming Colours won the Midlands Grand National, but nevertheless William Durkan is a trainer to watch.

He does incredibly well with his small string over jumps and on the Flat and inherited Favorite Moon from William Haggas in March. The five-year-old hasn't disgraced himself in four runs for the Irish handler and put up a particularly eyecatching effort at Galway in July.

He was sent off at 125-1 for the Connacht Hotel Handicap but defied his odds with a strong-staying sixth to Echoes In Rain, who will be 10lb worse off with the selection but is still among the most-fancied runners for the second leg of the autumn double.

Favorite Moon wasn't suited by the tight track at Ballybrit and was short of room momentarily before staying on well. The extra furlong and open undulations of Newmarket's Rowley Mile should be much more up his street.

He has plenty of class in his form as he won a Group 3 handicap at Rosehill for Haggas and recorded Racing Post Ratings of 105 and 107 in three respectable runs in decent handicaps last year.

You couldn't argue he was thrown in off a mark of 100, but a maiden win over hurdles at Downpatrick recently would have put him spot on and he is surely overpriced at 33-1.

Brilliant Brad can take advantage in Champions Sprint

Brad The Brief
Champions Sprint, October 15
1pt each-way 14-1 generally

The market for the Champions Sprint (2.00) hasn't really reacted to several pieces of news in recent weeks so it looks like the perfect time to invest in the Champions Day charge.

Minzaal has been retired following his dominant Sprint Cup victory, while progressive filly Sense Of Duty misses the race after sustaining an injury.

Although she is reportedly on target for the race, Alcohol Free is also recovering from an injury and is hardly one to rely on as for all she won the Coronation Stakes at this track last year, it has also been the scene of two hefty disappointments.

Two other contenders at the head of the market are pretty much guaranteed not to turn up. Highfield Princess is going to the Breeders' Cup and Kinross will surely head for Sunday's Prix de la Foret.

The division has been thrown wide open and it could be worth taking a chance on Brad The Brief, who has been better than ever in two starts this year.

He is third top-rated in the race behind Alcohol Free and Platinum Jubilee winner Naval Crown yet is much bigger in the market at 14-1.

His form this season doesn't look spectacular by any means but he still accounted for Glen Shiel, a former winner of this race, by three and a quarter lengths on his seasonal reappearance.

He beat him by even further in the Group 3 Greenlands Stakes, where he also had another Group 1 winner, Al Quoz winner A Case Of You, in arrears. Brad The Brief recorded a career-best Racing Post Rating of 120 there, which puts him right towards the top of this muddling group.

The effort prompted Hugo Palmer's travelling head lad to mention this race, which will surely suit if it takes place on its customary soft ground. It hasn't been staged on good or better since 2016 and this five-year-old loves testing conditions as his best form has come on soft and heavy.

The Champions Sprint has a habit of producing surprise winners and Brad The Brief should at very least be several points shorter in the betting.

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