Paul Nicholls is the man to follow outside March - as he showed at Cheltenham

The harder you try, the worse it gets. That is often true when it comes to punting and overanalysing the problem is something that can be a huge downfall for a lot of bettors.

At times I can be as guilty as anyone, but when things aren’t going well I tell myself to stop trying so hard and go back to basics. Racing is a simple sport and instincts are the best guide.

However, a balance has to be struck as I definitely under-analysed the Grade 2 novice hurdle at Cheltenham on Friday, in which Willie Mullins saddled red-hot market leader Hubrisko.