Saturday stats: why it can pay to favour younger legs in the Cleeve Hurdle

Albert Bartlett Clarence House Chase 

1.20 Cheltenham

(Run at Cheltenham in 2013 and 2017)

Key trends

• Between six and 11 chase starts, eight winners in last ten runnings
• Adjusted RPR of at least 175, 9/10
• Aged between seven to nine, 9/10
• Had won a Grade 1 chase, 9/10
• Rated within 2lb of RPR top-rated, 8/10 (exception 13lb and 22lb off top)

Other factors

Eight Tingle Creek winners have lined up, finishing 11121112.

Six winners were RPR top-rated.

Verdict

The market strongly suggests that this lies between Energumene and Edwardstone with trends backing that up. Preference is for Energumene, who has the edge on adjusted RPR, while his only defeat over fences came in a titanic battle with an on-song Shishkin in this contest last year.

Energumene20:31 Cheltenham

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Paddy Power Cotswold Chase

2.25 Cheltenham

(Ran at Sandown in 2021)

Key trends

• Won Class 1 chase, 9/10
• Adjusted RPR of at least 173, 8/10
• Rated within 8lb of RPR top-rated, 8/10
• Previous Cheltenham winner, 8/10
• Between seven and 19 runs over fences, 8/10
• Top-three finish last time out, 7/10

Other factors

Two of the last three favourites have won (both trained by Nicky Henderson) but the last successful market leader before them was Cyfor Malta in 1999.

The last two winners to have had more than 19 chase starts were both trained by Paul Nicholls (Neptune Collonges and Frodon).

Verdict

The one to hit all trends is Protektorat, who can set himself up nicely for another crack at the Gold Cup in March. Ahoy Senor fares well enough on ratings to suggest he could be a threat, but he has been disappointing this season, so Noble Yeats is the biggest danger. The evergreen Frodon won this in 2019, but that wasn't a particularly strong edition he scraped home in and he'll likely be found wanting in the closing stages under conditions which stretch his stamina.

Protektorat20:31 Cheltenham

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Dahlbury Stallions At Chapel Stud Cleeve Hurdle

3.00 Cheltenham

(Abandoned in 2021)

Key trends

• Between seven and 19 hurdle runs, 9/9
• Top-two finish on at least one of last two starts, 8/9 (five won last time out)
• Successful beyond 2m5f, 8/9
• Won or placed in a Grade 1 or 2, 8/9 (exception a Listed winner)  
• No older than nine, 7/9
• Adjusted RPR of at least 166, 7/9

Other factors

Only one winner was unpenalised, one carried a 4lb penalty and seven defied the maximum penalty (6lb since 2018, formerly 8lb).

Two winners had run over fences last time out.

Verdict

Paisley Park falls short in terms of age and exposure ahead of his bid for a record fourth Cleeve Hurdle, but it would be unwise to underestimate him as his form this season suggests the ability remains intact. Similar comments apply to Dashel Drasher, although he has yet to prove this trip truly suits. However, both are opposed with Gelino Bello, who may have a bit to find on ratings, but the seven-year-old is a Grade 1 novice hurdle winner over the trip and wouldn't be the first to switch back from chasing to score here.

Gelino Bello20:31 Cheltenham

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Sky Bet Handicap Chase

3.15 Doncaster

(Abandoned in 2013)

Key trends

• Won left-handed, 9/9
• Aged seven to ten, 8/9
• Distance winner, 7/9
• Officially rated 136-146, 7/9
• Top-three finish within last two starts, 7/9

Other factors

This used to favour lightly raced types but seven of the last nine winners had between 11 and 21 chase starts.

Verdict

The two to meet all criteria are Teaforfree and Demachine. The former comes here on a roll having won his last four, but better value may lie with Kerry Lee's nine-year-old who was going well in this last year until a breathing issue surfaced late on. Subsequent wind surgery seems to have worked and he is 2lb lower this time round. Cap Du Nord, who has placed in the last two runnings, and last year's winner Windsor Avenue have struggled this season, but both are well treated on their best and a better showing from either would hardly be a surprise.

Demachine20:31 Doncaster

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