It's no exact science! Pre-race analysis often found wanting as action unfolds

The definition of insanity, attributed to Albert Einstein but probably never said by him, was doing the same thing over and over again and expecting the same results. Now, I don’t want to call racing analysts bonkers, but every time there is a big-field handicap they always trot out the same old lines about draw and pace as if they are gospel and never stop to think they get it wrong much more often than they get it right.

Take Ayr on Saturday. Nobody knew what the hell was going on or where the best place to be was, and the results had absolutely nothing to do with where the strongest pace was.

Bielsa won the Ayr Gold Cup because he was on his own and racing on probably the fastest strip of ground, and exactly the same can be said of Staxton in the Silver version, except he was on the other side of the track.