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Horse racing tips

Find one that is keeping on at the end to ensure Chepstow spread joy

The Welsh National is a supreme test of stamina
The Welsh National is a supreme test of staminaCredit: Edward Whitaker

Elegant Escape
2.50 Chepstow
Buy at 3.5 lengths in a match bet with Now McGinty

There is something of a suspicion that Elegant Escape has become like Zeno's Achilles chasing the tortoise. No matter how demanding the test, he will find a way to not quite get there in time.

The Welsh National will be the acid test, unlike the Charlie Hall and Ladbrokes Trophy which might arguably be on the sharp side for him anyway. What can be guaranteed is that Elegant Escape will be chasing them up the Chepstow straight, like the villain in a slasher film.

Whether or not he gets there in time might be immaterial if you take him in a match bet with Now McGinty. While I respect the latter's chances, I would not advocate backing him each-way. He is a talented sort with deep reserves of stamina, but the doubt is whether he is stoic enough for this sort of test. He is not associated with the grim determination required of most Welsh National winners.

Elegant Escape has been there and done it, winning last year off 9lb lower. He is a slightly better horse now, albeit not that much better, and while he offers just modest value in the traditional book at around 7-2, he is a much more appealing proposition for spreads bettors and Placepot hunters.

2.50 Chepstow

Sporting (50-30-20-10): 17-20 Elegant Escape, 13-16 Now McGinty, 11-14 Truckers Lodge, 10-13 Potters Corner, 8-11 Yala Enki, West Approach, 5-7 Pobbles Bay, 5-7 Prime Venture, 3-5 The Two Amigos, Captain Chaos, 2-4 Arthurs Gift, Virginia Chick, Space Cadet, 1-3 Pop Rockstar, Field Exhibition, 0.5-2 Rathlin Rose, Looks Like Power

Match bet Elegant Escape/Now McGinty 2-3.5


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