Festival winner can spring a Champion Chase surprise

A Plus Tard
Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase
1pt win at 10-1 (7-1 NRNB with Skybet)

Altior is simply a brilliant racehorse. He could have won a few Champion Hurdles if connections had opted for that route and, at his best, the 7-2 available for the Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase would be an extraordinary price if he was to win at his fifth straight Cheltenham Festival.

However, all good things must come to an end and it just seems that this season nothing is going right for him. Not only did he suffer his first defeat over obstacles, but he's missed a few engagements as well and, most importantly, this year's Champion Chase looks infinitely more competitive than last year's.

I never thought Altior was at his best last year anyway and in Defi Du Seuil, Chacun Pour Soi and A Plus Tard, in particular, he is up against three much younger horses with any amount of potential.

The obvious alternative is dual Cheltenham Festival winner Defi Du Seuil. He was impressive when beating Lostintranslation in the JLT last season and he proved he was top class over 2m when winning the Tingle Creek in December.

Defi Du Seuil clearly has an excellent chance but there are a couple of things that put me off him. The first is that he's 7-2 and he's due to run on Saturday. He won't get much shorter even if he beats Un De Sceaux, so why back him now when we will have more information in a few days.

Second, he's a tricky ride who needs delivering late. Cheltenham clearly suits him very well and Barry Geraghty is brilliant on him, but when any horse is ridden like that, their jumping has to be spot on. In a race of this class one mistake could see him having to make up lots of ground on some superstar horses.

Chacun Pour Soi looked a wonder horse when beating Defi Du Seuil at Punchestown last season and he was having his first run of the season when beaten at Leopardstown over Christmas.

He will surely improve for that run and is undoubtedly a potential winner too, but he's around 4-1 and if Altior and Defi Du Seuil win their trials, he might be bigger on the day.

Furthermore, he has never run at Cheltenham and, while I don't expect that to be an issue, it's another unknown to add to his pot.

Consequently, the value lies with A Plus Tard at 10-1. I know there's a good chance he will run in the Ryanair, so you could always back him at 7-1 with Skybet, who are non-runner no bet, but if I owned him I would definitely be having a shot at the Champion Chase.

I have no doubt he has the pace for the race as he was incredibly quick from three out to the line when winning the Close Brothers Novices' Chase at the festival last year and he had no problem winning the Grade 1 at Leopardstown over Christmas over 2m1f. According to Racing Post Ratings, that latest effort was his best by some way and puts him within a 1lb of Defi, so it could well be that around two miles is actually his best trip.

That fact he's due to run in the Grade 1 chase over 2m1f at the Dublin Racing Festival, strongly suggests that connections are more than thinking about the Champion Chase and if the ground was to come up soft on the Wednesday of Cheltenham that is when I would expect him to run.

Of the rest, I can't believe either Politologue or Sceau Royal will be good enough to win it after a few tries, but Cilaos Emery has won all his chases and could be dangerous. He stays very well but he's a shorter price than A Plus Tard and has much worse form.

The final word goes to Riders Onthe Storm, who has been one of the revelations of the season. He travels well enough for him to be a Champion Chase candidate and I would expect him to try 2m sooner rather than later.

Queen Mother Champion Chase card and betting

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