A festive value bet for the Christmas showpiece

There is one horse and one horse alone who is a backable price and has a realistic chance of winning the 32Red King George VI Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day. The problem is his trainer rates him only as 50-50 to run and Colin Tizzard already trains the short-priced favourite and last year's winner Cue Card.

Of course we are talking about the mighty Thistlecrack, who is an 8-1 shot now but will surely be only 2-1 or so if he were to run. Despite the presence of Cue Card, I would expect him to start a hot favourite if he lines up.

The question punters have to ask themselves is whether they would rather take a much shorter price and be sure of Thistlecrack's participation on the day or take a risk now in the hope connections opt for the big one at Kempton rather than the Feltham.