A cracking Gold Cup awaits - and this 20-1 regular is the each-way value

We’re approaching two months until the Cheltenham Gold Cup. There is plenty of time for setbacks, below-par prep runs or even a leftfield contender to emerge, but whatever happens before March 17 this year’s race will surely be a cracker.

A spin through the 27 entries, revealed last week, is enough to whet the appetite for the Cheltenham Festival showpiece. The potentially mighty Galopin Des Champs heads the betting at 7-4 and last year’s winner A Plus Tard, Betfair Chase scorer Protektorat and star second-season novices Bravemansgame and L’Homme Presse – the former winning the King George last month – are among a plethora of big names.

That is by no means all. Grand National hero Noble Yeats could be a key player and looks a top-level chaser in waiting on this season’s exploits, Conflated was back to his best when landing the Savills Chase and Hewick, Shark Hanlon’s buy of all buys at €850, could vie with Dream Alliance for ultimate fairytale story status if successful.

Even Monkfish, the 2020 Albert Bartlett and 2021 Brown Advisory winner, featured in the entries, as did unbeaten novice The Real Whacker. The leftfield late emerger could be Shishkin. He was entered after all.

For all the promise and potential stardom of many of the names above, it is proven performers – and course form – that I like to focus on and leads me to the value play in the ante-post market.

Festival form figures of 1212 are indicative of Minella Indo peaking at the Cheltenham Festival each season and his Racing Post Ratings back that up, with his best figure for the last four campaigns achieved at the big meeting.

Stablemate A Plus Tard emphatically reversed the 2021 Gold Cup form with Minella Indo last March but the race wasn’t run at a particularly strong gallop, with seven horses still in contention at the third-last, and the emphasis on finishing speed suited the winner.

Minella Indo was only headed at the last and was far from disgraced in second, with Protektorat a further two and a half lengths back in third.

A Plus Tard has questions to answer having been pulled up at Haydock on his sole start this season, and may even head straight to Cheltenham, whereas Minella Indo confirmed he retains plenty of his class with a brave win over fellow Gold Cup hope Stattler in the Savills New Year’s Day Chase at Tramore.

On the bare form you would have been disappointed if Minella Indo had not beaten Stattler, having been rated 10lb higher and in receipt of 8lb. Minella Indo had been defeated on his four previous chase starts on right-handed tracks, however, and if you were creating a perfect race for this stout stayer a 2m6f event around the sharp, turning, right-handed Tramore would not be it.

Minella Indo (left): digs deep to beat Stattler at TramoreCredit: Healy Racing

Minella Indo was ridden along a fair way out, with Stattler poised to pounce two out and upsides on the run-in, but Rachael Blackmore’s mount really did pull out all the stops to prevail by a neck.

Despite the weight swing, our RPR team felt this was a marginally better performance than Minella Indo’s second in the Irish Gold Cup prior to filling the same position at Cheltenham last season.

It remains to be seen whether Minella Indo takes in the Leopardstown Grade 1 again next month, although Henry de Bromhead was initially inclined to freshen him up for Cheltenham. That would be a change in schedule from the past two seasons but could be no bad thing, with a 53-day break doing him no harm prior to his length second to Champ in the 2020 RSA.

A ten-year-old has not won the Gold Cup since Cool Dawn in 1998 and 20-1 shot Minella Indo may end up vulnerable to younger legs, but On His Own, Mon Mome, Denman and Kauto Star have been in double digits when placed in the race since 2010 and the solid each-way option is sometimes not to be sniffed at.

Opposing Facile Vega is not for me

It would be a boring sport if all the big-race favourites win, and punters quite rightly take on some of the Cheltenham Festival hotpots with their ante-post plays.

Facile Vega, who is no bigger than 5-6 for the Supreme, appears to be one people are looking to oppose and his Champion Bumper win took its latest knock on Saturday.

Authorised Speed’s heavy defeat in the Tolworth at Sandown took the hurdling record of the beaten horses in last year's Champion Bumper to 7-37, with none of the wins coming at higher than Class 2 level in novice company.

Joyeux Machin, who was second to Facile Vega on their debuts at Leopardstown and then pulled up in the Champion Bumper, failed to complete in the Challow at Newbury, while Cheltenham runner-up American Mike was beaten at 2-7 when second to Dawn Rising in a Grade 3 at Navan.

I’m not massively surprised the Champion Bumper form has had its hits though, as it was a uniquely gruelling race. The rain at Cheltenham that day was biblical, so much so that the day-two finale had to survive a pre-race inspection due to standing water.

When it eventually took place, the field had to zig-zag around the course, with the usual route out of action, and it was such a test that a quarter of the 20-runner field were pulled up.

Facile Vega: unbeaten in four bumpers and two hurdles startsCredit: Patrick McCann

Facile Vega looked an absolute brute in the winner’s enclosure at Cheltenham, and for him to return six weeks later and maintain his unbeaten record at Punchestown marked him out as a real top-notcher. Redemption Day may have got notably closer to the winner than at Cheltenham but that just says more about him not handling conditions the previous month.

This season there was little to learn from Facile Vega’s hurdling debut win at Fairyhouse, where his opposition gifted him a lead and never made any inroads, and while his Grade 1 win at Leopardstown was not a standout performance, it was nevertheless pretty straightforward.

Paul Townend resorted to just the one flick of the whip after the last and he was never in trouble. Sometimes we expect racing’s stars to hack up by wide margins each time they are in action but it rarely works out like that.

There is a chance Facile Vega could go for the Ballymore rather than the Supreme, and I can see the thinking with Impaire Et Passe looking all speed at Naas, but it’s only a chance. He’s not a horse I would be willing to take on any time soon.

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