'The overall picture's strong' - Keeneland Breeding Stock Sale concludes on high

On the closing day of the November Breeding Stock Sale, a feeling of accomplishment and order had been restored to Keeneland officials and its patrons.

Total sale receipts of $157,822,800 seen in the pandemic year of 2020 were eclipsed on the second day of Book 3, and when all was said and done, ten days of selling resulted in gross receipts of $207,835,500 and a record $37,000 median.

One word can sum up the current state of the thoroughbred market: 'healthy.' With higher purses rewarding end users thanks to increased handle at the racetrack, and on the back of a bullish yearling sales season preceded by a strong two-year-old market at the start of the year, sustainability carried over to the breeding stock portion to result in the highest gross at this sale since 2016.

The record median was the second straight for a Keeneland sale, after a $65,000 median was achieved at the Keeneland September Yearling Sale, which also saw a record average ($130,698) and RNA rate.

"The energy has returned to the sport, and sustainability is being achieved through the supply and demand. Breeders, owners, and pinhookers made money in September, which is being reinvested here in November. With buyers' appetites not satiated, the January Sale will surely continue this momentum," said Cormac Breathnach, director of sales operations for Keeneland.

"The median is a good guide of the health of the market and the middle market [more particularly], which is what we saw in September. The higher median ties into a lower RNA rate. For internal analysis, we tend to look more at the median than the average. At the end of the day, if the median is up, we see a lot more smiles than frowns."

Keeneland representatives gave a sigh of relief when Covid-19 travel restrictions in many countries, including Australia, were lifted two days before the sale started, allowing a diverse group of buyers into the states.

"With the travel restrictions lifting in time for the sale, it's been refreshing to see some people here that we haven't seen in not just a few years but more like a decade or so," said Tony Lacy, Keeneland's vice president of sales.

"The presence of the Australians was very welcome; the American broodmares have been doing exceptionally well in their gene pool. It was great to see the Europeans here and spending money again. The attraction of the American pedigrees is starting to gain traction again. South America and Turkey's participation was robust."

After Japan's first Breeders' Cup winners - Loves Only You in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf and Marche Lorraine in the Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff - scored at Del Mar, Japanese buyers carried their enthusiasm forward to the November Sale. Masahiro Miki wound up as the leading buyer by gross, making three purchases for a total $3,675,000.

The sale's second-leading buyer was John and Susan Sykes's Woodford Thoroughbreds of Florida, which spent $3,515,000 for 14 in-foal broodmares. Woodford paid $400,000 each for two mares carrying foals from the first crop of 2020 Kentucky Derby winner and Horse of the Year Authentic, the sale's leading covering sire by gross.

A total of 20 mares in foal to Authentic sold for $7.84 million, led by Achalaya, dam of Grade 1 winner Casa Creed and Grade 3 winner Chess's Dream. Thirty Year Farm purchased her for $725,000 from Gainesway's consignment.

The leading sire of weanlings by gross was Munnings, whose 23 weanlings sold for $3,154,000.

By average (with three or more sold), Into Mischief led rankings of both covering sires and weanling sires. Six mares in foal to the stallion averaged $887,500, and his seven weanlings averaged $402,143.

Of the 41 horses that sold for $500,000 or more, there were 30 distinct buyers.

"American dirt bloodlines are so valuable worldwide; the foundations are huge contributors to the stud books in various jurisdictions. We are privileged and fortunate to be able to represent that market to the world here at Keeneland, with the support of the breeders and consignors," Breathnach said. "The market has been strong; the international participation has been consistent, which is very valuable to us."

This year the catalogue represented 3,893 offerings, and Keeneland reported 2,534 horses sold for that $207,835,500 gross, compared to the 2,287 horses that changed hands for receipts of $157,822,800 in 2020.

This year's average price of $82,019 and median of $37,000 show an increase of 31.6 per cent from the previous year's $69,009 average and $25,000 median. Cumulatively this year, 455 horses failed to meet their reserve to represent an RNA rate of 15.2 per cent, little change compared to the 432 horses that failed to sell in 2020 at an RNA rate of 15.8 per cent.

Scenics 2021 Keeneland November SaleCredit: Keeneland photo

"Excitement for racing and confidence in the future of our sport globally are positive trends for the entire horse industry," said Keeneland president and CEO Shannon Arvin. "The November Sale continued the optimism we saw in September with great energy on the sales grounds, smiling faces all around, and people having fun doing what they love.

"As in September, Keeneland worked to elevate the sales atmosphere with many little touches that we hope consignors and buyers really enjoyed, and that helped create a terrific environment to showcase the quality individuals that breeders and sellers brought to market. We are delighted with the enthusiastic response of buyers."

Internet bidding continued to be an instrumental tool, its second year in use by the auction house. Picking up in Book 3, internet bidding saw around 600 bids in that portion of the sale alone. A total count of 3,386 bids was made online and accounted for total sales of $11,697,000 for the 253 purchases secured.

"Internet bidders are using the online content available on the website, which is leading to confidence in bidding over the internet," Breathnach commented. "A good percentage of the activity is domestic, from out of state residents."

The sale topper came on the first day of selling with a supplemental entry consigned by ELiTE Sales to Book 1, as Spendthrift Farm emerged victorious on a $3.1 million bid for Grade 1 winner Paris Lights. The four-year-old Curlin filly will have a date with leading sire Into Mischief next year.

Book 1 also produced the top weanling sold at Keeneland November this season, an $800,000 filly by Frankel consigned by Four Star Sales as Hip 144 and purchased by Phil Schoenthal, agent for D. Hatman Thoroughbreds. The highest-priced weanling colt, a son of Triple Crown Winner Justify consigned by Lane's End, agent, sold for $625,000 to Coolmore's MV Magnier.

The strength of the market continued to be seen as the sale went on.

"[The market has] been very good," said WinStar Farm president, CEO, and racing manager Elliott Walden. "We've tried to buy some and haven't been successful and the ones we've sold, sold very well. It's a sellers' market right now, and it's good for everybody. It's good to regenerate dollars and it's good for people to get inventory and have that appetite.

"The fundamentals are good on the racing side. Purses are good; it makes sense to buy horses. The economy is doing very well right now, but I think the fundamentals of owning a racehorse are there, finally."

"Seeing some people that have been inactive for a few years is very encouraging. Professional breeders, like Bill Casner, who has been active but at a slightly lower level, he came back and bought the half to Juju's Map and a few others at a significant level," Lacy said.

"If you look at the results from Books 1 and 2, you saw farms and people who purchased farms being active along with significant breeders doubling down and stocking up their farms. I think for the future, and even if we have a correction in the market over the next few years, from what we can see, we won't have the same panic; this isn't borrowed money."

Lacy added: "There is confidence with prize money being up and partnerships coming together on these horses. When you have a vibrant yearling market, the reaction is that it's viable to breed these horses; it's sustaining. We want to try and harness the things that are working. I don't think the market is overheating in any way.

"If you look at the results from 2018 and 2019 to 2021, you see a straight line, a consistent line of growth. Last year was a bit of an anomaly, but better than we thought it would be, there was a demand for youngstock, and it's carried over here."

Taylor Made Sales Agency has continued to show its staying power, and was the leading consignor for the fifth consecutive year at the November Sale - and the 25th since 1987 - with 246 horses sold for gross receipts of $23,873,200 with an average price of $97,046.

"I think it's a testament to our customer base and our team. We are uniquely built-in in that we have a team of thoroughbred advisers that work together, representing their customers. It's our depth of quality; while we sell more, if you take our top-end, our average is still high compared to other consignors," said Mark Taylor, vice president of sales and marketing at Taylor Made Sales.

"We have great customers; we have been doing this for almost 45 years. Whoever said staying on top was more difficult than getting on top is probably right. Because we had to get to the top and staying on top is difficult. It's very competitive. You constantly have to put yourself in your customer's shoes and try and do a better job than you did the year before."

Buyers and sellers alike may now enjoy the holiday season before coming back for more with the Keeneland January Horses of All Ages Sale, which will be held on January 10-13.

"The overall picture is strong, and we are going to try and keep it going through January," said Breathnach. "The entries for the January sale happen before the beginning of November, but we are taking supplements through the end of the November Sale. We are excited about the catalogue, and we know from feedback buyers are already looking for mares."

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