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Point-to-point latest: expectations uncertain over upcoming sales
With time running out to restart the point-to-point campaign, trainers and sales companies could be left counting the cost for months, even if racing and pointing get the go-ahead to resume this summer.
The coronavirus pandemic has wiped out the current racing calendar in Britain and Ireland, but Richard Pugh, director of horses in training at Tattersalls Ireland, feels it is too early to speculate on the potential impact at the upcoming sales, which includes its marquee Derby Sale in late June.
"There are still a number of variables and there is a possibility that ten or 12-million euro that might have been spent at the upcoming sales won't be spent," he said.
"And it's a little frustrating considering that the younger horses coming from Irish point-to-points are very exciting at the moment, the likes of Shishkin and Envoi Allen for example. You would have imagined in that context that the upcoming sales were likely to be particularly strong given the strength of the market going into Cheltenham, but it really comes down to what happens."
He added: "For the people who have four-year-olds who could have run over the next few weeks, that stock is still going to exist and there are still outlets for them to run in the autumn season, and maybe the number of fixtures in the autumn could be increased if the willingness was there from the various committees to run them. Hopefully those horses could then make their market value at that stage."
The possibility of significant contraction in the market for stores at the upcoming sales will not be lost on the sales companies either, although Pugh feels that speculation on that subject is premature.
He said: "Five of our seven sales for pointers have already taken place, and while there will be some loss, there is also the question of readjustment. Anybody who has a nice horse who works well is going to run them, and the market will determine what they are worth in due course.
"I don't want to be overly optimistic, or naively so. I know that anybody with a nice four-year-old capable of winning now has to wait, and that is potentially somebody who would have been a bit stronger going into the store sales. But I don't want to be unduly pessimistic, either. The stock remains, and those horses will be monetised in due course. That's the positive."
And for the rest of the season? "If we managed to get back in early May, that would be an unbelievable boost. I've seen seasons where the weather has been appalling through March and April and May has saved the season with huge quality and quantity coming through."
Leading point-to-point trainer Colin Bowe, who in the past has sold on 2020 Cheltenham Festival winners Envoi Allen and Samcro among others, gave his view on the situation.
"It's a tricky time," he said. "I probably have more than 40 four-year-olds left. We'll keep them ticking over for the next couple of weeks but it's not looking good and we might have to pull stumps on the year. If we could get going again, all well and good, but I would think we'll definitely have to let the soft-ground horses off for the season."
Regarding the upcoming sales, he added: "There are two problems with that. One is financial and the other is space. I will buy some three-year-old stores but not as many as I would normally buy for those reasons. And I'm probably one of the lucky ones. I've had a good enough year, I managed to get a few away and I sold a couple at the Cheltenham sales.
"Looking forward, if we could get the tail end of the season from May into June we would be able to get a better idea of what we had and maybe make a bit of space for horses to come in from the sales. And then even with a wet autumn we could bring back in some of the soft ground horses and see what they were like.
"But if we couldn't start up by the middle of May I would say there is no point in continuing with the season."
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