Who will win the 2023 Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes based on previous trends?

The first Group 1 of the season for horses aged four or above will be run at Newbury on Saturday. The Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes is fiercely competitive and here we take a look at who is the most likely winner based on previous trends . . .

Rating

It takes a class horse to win the Lockinge and over the last nine years no winner has been officially rated lower than 115. Six of those nine winners were rated above 120.

Interestingly, only five of the 13 runners in this year's contest carry a rating above 115, with second-favourite Laurel falling short of previous trends at 112.

Form

Top-level success is a strong indicator for this contest, with seven of the last nine winners previously scoring in Group 1 company. The two to buck that trend were Mustashry, who had won at Group 2 level, and Farhh, who was unlucky to bump into Frankel in two Group 1 races before his Lockinge success.  

This year's field has just one Group 1 winner in market leader Modern Games, who has claimed four top-level victories in France, Canada and the US. 

Fitness

Baaeed won this race on his first start in 2022 and he's one of four winners over the last nine years to have used this Group 1 contest as a seasonal debut. The other five had either one or two runs prior to winning this. It is a fairly even split, which shows proven race fitness is not necessary for success.

Trainer William Haggas will be hoping third favourite My Prospero is ready to go first time out, having been last seen finishing third in the Champion Stakes in October. 

My Prospero: will make his first start this season at Newbury on SaturdayCredit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

Distance

Prior winning form over a mile is crucial, with all nine winners previously successful over the trip. That's a negative for 10-1 shot Light Infantry, the Richard Hannon-trained Lusail and Hungerford Stakes winner Jumby.

Hawk Wing in 2003 was the last winner to succeed in this race having never previously won at the trip.

Draw

Stalls three and five have seen three winners each over the last nine years while the other victories have come  from stalls eight, six and two. A low-to-mid draw seems ideal over the straight mile track and Ribchester was the only winner to make all en route to success during that time. 

This is a negative for Modern Games, who has been given the outside stall of 13, but Juddmonte will be pleased with stall five for Laurel. Shadwell's Mutasaabeq, who made all in his last two victories, is in stall three. 

Modern Games: sets the standard based on previous trendsCredit: Scoop Dyga/France Galop

Verdict

Modern Games ticks nearly every box as a previous Group 1 winner over Saturday's mile trip. He's had a run this season in the US in the Grade 1 Maker's Mark Mile Stakes and is the highest rated in the field at 121, having landed the Breeders' Cup Mile last season.

The four-year-old has never visited the track but five of the last nine winners were running at Newbury for the first time when successful in the race. He should have the class edge to overcome a high draw and is perfectly poised to claim his first domestic Group 1 success. 

Modern Games15:35 Newbury

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Jky: William Buick Tnr: Charlie Appleby

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