Steve Palmer's Mexico Open final-round golf betting tips and predictions

Where to watch the Mexico Open

Sky Sports Golf, 2pm Sunday

Best bets

Erik van Rooyen to win 6.10pm twoball
3pts 10-11 Betfair, Power

Brandon Wu to win 5.25pm twoball
2pts 5-4 Betfair

Erik van Rooyen betting without Jake Knapp
1pt each-way 12-1 BoyleSports

Story so far

Jake Knapp leads the Mexico Open by four shots going into the final round at Vidanta Vallarta – the former nightclub bouncer producing some incredible ball-striking to take charge.

Knapp, a 29-year-old rookie playing in only his ninth PGA Tour event, has produced rounds of 67, 64 and 63 to reach 19 under par. The pre-tournament 40-1 chance is a general 1-4 with 18 holes to remaining.

Knapp turned professional in 2016 and struggled on the Canadian Tour before getting on to the Korn Ferry Tour in 2020. A solid, although winless 2023 campaign, meant graduation to the PGA Tour for this season.

Tour form figures of 70-MC-3-28 have meant a solid start to life on the main circuit for Knapp and a W may be added on Sunday. Sami Valimaki, another rookie maiden, is alone in second place. They comprise the final twoball at 6.40pm UK and Ireland time.

Mexico Open leaderboard

-19 Jake Knapp
-15 Sami Valimaki
-12 Ben Silverman, Henrik Norlander, Chan Kim
-11 Robert MacIntyre, Justin Lower, Erik van Rooyen, Matt Wallace

Best odds for the Mexico Open

1-4 J Knapp, 5 S Valimaki, 50 C Kim, 60 E Van Rooyen, B Silverman, 70 H Norlander, 80 M Wallace, R MacIntyre, 125 bar

Mexico Open final-round predictions

This is Jake Knapp's first final-round lead as a professional golfer. He is a PGA Tour maiden. And he is loaded with emotion due to his desire for a chance to honour his late grandfather. They are the three reasons for high-rollers to swerve the 1-4 about Knapp winning the Mexico Open.

It is entirely reasonable to expect the performance of Knapp to dip in round four. He has been exceptional to this point, hitting his ball with remarkable authority, but some tightening of his shoulders seems inevitable.

Knapp has a tattoo below his left bicep with the initials of his late grandfather, who died of cancer last April, and post-round interviews on Saturday evening became tearful as this new PGA Tour star explained how victory would be for the man he called “Papa”.

It is a short price that a player with a mullet wins the Mexico Open. Knapp will be joined by Sami Valimaki in the final twoball and it is not difficult to imagine both men struggling under the pressure. Valimaki has failed to finish off plenty of golden opportunities on the DP World Tour in the past. He has won twice on the DPWT, though, and the 25-yearp-old Finn will enjoy being the hunter rather than the hunted in the initial skirmishes.

With warm sunshine and calm skies expected for the final day, a feast of birdies seems on the cards, so somebody in the chasing pack appears likely to deliver a round in the low-60s. If Knapp thinks he is already on the winning score, that is probably a mistake, and the leader may need to advance his score.

Erik Van Rooyen (60-1) and Matt Wallace (80-1) are a duo could make a charge from their share of sixth place, eight shots behind Knapp, but the South African and the Englishman have no margin for error. They have to make the most of the four par-fives and the driveable par-four seventh.

Van Rooyen, who won the World Wide Technology Championship in Mexico in November, should be trusted to outscore Justin Lower in the 6.10pm twoball. Van Rooyen is well suited to the demands of Vidanta Vallarta and opened with a 63 this week. He can finish with a flourish, too, and leave a limited opponent behind.

Vidanta Vallarta leaderboard regular Brandon Wu is much preferred to Jorge Campillo in the 5.25pm match, while Van Rooyen seems worth chancing in BoyleSports' 'without Jake Knapp' market. The two-time Tour champion is only four shots behind Valimaki and could well take runner-up honours.

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