Steve Palmer's Genesis Invitational final-round golf betting tips and predictions

Where to watch the Genesis Invitational

Sky Sports Golf, 2.30pm Sunday

Best bets

Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele dual forecast
3pts 13-8 bet365

Max Homa to win 5.05pm twoball
1pt 8-5 BoyleSports

Story so far

Patrick Cantlay saw his five-shot halfway lead reduced to two in round three of the Genesis Invitational, so the chasing pack had a successful Saturday.

Cantlay, dominating at Riviera Country Club after rounds of 64 and 65, struggled to progress his score in round three, carding just one birdie on the relatively straightforward front nine. A poorly played 17th hole meant the leader signed for a one-under-par 70, moving 14 under for the tournament.

Cantlay's fellow Californians, Xander Schauffele and Will Zalatoris, were the pair to take advantage. This Golden State gathering is long odds-on to have a Californian champion after Schauffele and Zalatoris both fired 65s to move into a share of second place.

Cantlay, a pre-tournament 18-1 chance, can be backed at a fraction of odds-against with 18 holes to play. Schauffele is a best-price 3-1, while Zalatoris is a general 9-2 chance. The final twoball of Cantlay and Schauffele is scheduled to tee off at 7.15pm UK and Ireland.

Genesis Invitational leaderboard

-14 Patrick Cantlay
-12 Xander Schauffele, Will Zalatoris
-11 Luke List
-10 Harris English, Jason Day
-8 JT Poston, Hideki Matsuyama, Corey Conners

Best odds for the Genesis Invitational

21-20 P Cantlay, 3 X Schauffele, 9-2 W Zalatoris, 14 L List, 20 J Day, 28 H English, 125 bar

Genesis Invitational final-round predictions

Patrick Cantlay played the front nine at Riviera CC on Saturday like a man who had a five-shot lead, refusing to take on any pins, happy to make pars, seeing if that would be good enough to stay in control of the Genesis Invitational.

The plan worked well until the 17th hole, but a series of poor shots on the final par-five means a change of strategy will be required for round four. Cantlay found the fairway bunker off the tee, had to lay up, was short with his approach and failed to get up and down for par.

With Xander Schauffele and Will Zalatoris suddenly too close for comfort, Cantlay will need to approach the front nine in a more positive fashion. Riviera's opening 11 holes are where plenty of birdies can be made, before a tough stretch to the clubhouse.

Cantlay, Racing Post Sport's headline pre-tournament recommendation at 18-1, remains the man to beat, but the idea that he can cruise to victory off the back of his 13-under-par opening 36 holes has probably left the property. The former FedEx Cup champion is likely going to need to earn the W with a few front-nine birdies.

Cantlay relishes Riviera. He has been solid off the tee this week, excellent on approach, and exceptional with the putter, so confidence is high heading into the denouement. If he can just smarten up around the greens and pick up three shots on the front, Cantlay backers could be in for the comfortable evening they crave. This is a seven-time PGA Tour champion with proven bottle – the nickname Patty Ice has been earned.

A twoball with Xander Schauffele probably helps. They are great friends, regular practice partners and they won the 2022 Zurich Classic pairs event in tandem. It is a brave man who bets that the Genesis champion is not playing in this twoball.

Will Zalatoris will be thrilled to have got into contention so soon after his comeback from a long injury layoff. The fact he is seventh on the putting stats this week will be sending his fans wild – a switch to a long putter seemingly working well.

The eyecatching putting improvement will be tested in round four, though, as the pressure increases. Much like with Scottie Scheffler, who often in recent months has putted reasonably for three days before slipping back into mediocrity on Sundays, Zalatoris's new technique may buckle.

Punters with a significant investment in Cantlay may wish to take some of the 3-1 about Schauffele – the biggest danger to frontrunner. The gap between Schauffele and Zalatoris in the betting should arguably be wider. Schauffele is 3-1 in bet365's win-only market, as well as in Betfair and Power's standard market.

The 13-8 about the Cantlay-Schauffele dual forecast seems full of juice. These two pals should quickly ease into rhythm – expect both to make an easy birdie at the first – and prove the class acts of the leaderboard.

Scheffler has endured another miserable week with putter in hand, ranking 50th in the field for strokes-gained putting, and with his winning hopes almost certainly gone, his enthusiasm for this event could quickly fade on Sunday. Mental fatigue could be an issue given how much golf he played in Phoenix last Sunday and the much fresher Max Homa looks a value outsider for their 5.05pm twoball.

Homa will be delighted with the way his game has come around over the last two rounds – he has recovered well from an opening 73 – and full focus is assured for 18 holes for this hometown event. Homa grew up only 30 miles away from Riviera.

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