Steve Palmer's South African Open predictions and free golf betting tips

When to bet 

By 4.20am on Thursday

Where to watch the South African Open

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 10am on Thursday

Steve Palmer's South African Open predictions

Dean Burmester
4pts each-way 7-1 bet365

Hennie du Plessis
2.5pts each-way 22-1 bet365

Casey Jarvis
1.5pts each-way 80-1 BoyleSports

Deon Germishuys
1pt each-way 100-1 Hills

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Thriston Lawrence does not have long to recover from the ordeal he suffered on Sunday at Houghton Golf Club in last week's Joburg Open and the defending South African Open champion may make a hesitant start at Blair Atholl.

Lawrence took a three-shot lead into the final round of the Joburg Open, but carded a calamitous 75, going four over par through his first five holes, finishing seventh. He shot a Sunday 74 at Blair Atholl last year, but fell over the line in front.

After two consecutive savage Sundays – he narrowly missed out on a PGA Tour in the DP World Tour Championship before his meek Joburg Open surrender – Lawrence can be left alone for the SA Open. Christiaan Bezuidenhout, a short-hitter tackling an enormous layout this week, is equally unappealing at short odds.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Dean Burmester 7-1

From Friday onwards in last week's Joburg Open, Dean Burmester was hugely impressive, and the power-packed South African looks set to complete a quickfire title double by topping the Blair Atholl leaderboard.

A withdrawal during his previous DP World Tour start – the Dunhill Links last month – meant there was a slight injury concern about Burmester going into the Joburg Open. He is clearly in fine fettle, though, and was bombing gargantuan drives at Houghton last week – a course which gets extremely narrow in places.

Burmester admitted to being rusty on Thursday last week, but form and confidence surged through his veins in a Friday 62, and he has moved to a course this week which suits him much better. He fully deserves to be a shorter price for Blair Atholl.

Burmester is one of the longest drivers in the world tackling the third-longest golf course in the world this week and he should make mincemeat of the five par-fives. He was in poor form when making his Blair Atholl debut in last year's SA Open, but he fell in love with the track and finished fifth.

A light recent schedule means Burmester has plenty left in the tank for Blair Atholl and he can win a third DPWT title in South Africa.

Next best bet

Hennie du Plessis 22-1

The last five South African Opens have been won by a South African, and Hennie du Plessis may emerge as the greatest title threat to Burmester. Du Plessis loves this event, finishing sixth in 2020, third in 2021 and ninth last year at Blair Atholl.

Du Plessis, a burly 27-year-old full of natural punch off the tee, has got two titles under his belt on the Sunshine Tour and has twice contended in DPWT events in Spain. A breakthrough has seemed imminent, with tenth place in the BMW PGA at Wentworth followed by 14th in the Dunhill Links, sixth in the Nedbank Challenge and 21st last week in the Joburg Open.

Du Plessis, who made more than $3m from his brief spell on the LIV circuit last year, is rich, comfortable and confident as he seeks a DPWT breakthrough this week.

Other selections

Casey Jarvis 80-1
Deon Germishuys 100-1

Casey Jarvis tied 37th in the Joburg Open and this powerful, aggressive youngster will appreciate the extra room off the tee at Blair Atholl. The 20-year-old finished runner-up five times this year before winning a maiden Challenge Tour title in July. He carded a 59 in a Sunshine Tour event in April and looks fantastic each-way value this week.

Deon Germishuys, an increasingly impressive 24-year-old who graduated from the Challenge Tour last season, finished ninth in the ISPS Handa Championship in April, won the US Open qualifier at Walton Heath, was 15th in the Soudal Open and third in the KLM Open. He got back in a groove with 21st place in the Joburg Open and loves Blair Atholl, where he finished 21st in the 2021 Blair Atholl Championship and 23rd in last year's SA Open.

Blair Atholl course guide

Course Blair Atholl Golf & Equestrian Estate, Lanseria, Johannesburg, South Africa
Prize money $1.5m ($250,000 to the winner)
Length 8,161 yards
Par 72 – five par-fives; eight par-fours; five par-threes
Field 156 The cut Top 65 and ties qualify for round three
Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Thriston Lawrence (85), Dean Burmester (106), Christiaan Bezuidenhout (114), Ewen Ferguson (122), Romain Langasque (128)
Course records - 72 holes 272 Thriston Lawrence (2022) 18 holes 63 Ockie Strydom (2022)

Course winner taking part Thriston Lawrence

When to bet By 4.20am on Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 10am on Thursday

Time difference South Africa is two hours ahead of UK and Ireland time

Last week – Joburg Open 1 D Burmester (11-1), 2 D Fichardt (150-1), 3 D Bradbury (18-1), T4 J Kruyswijk (70-1), Z Lombard (25-1), 6 N Rama (1,000-1), T7 T Lawrence (20-1), G Green (55-1)

Course type Parkland

Course overview Blair Atholl touts itself as the third-longest course in the world, designed by Gary Player, who lived on the estate for more than 20 years. The venue is at altitude, which means balls fly further, but the holes obviously require lusty hitting. The 14th, 15th and 16th claim to be the longest collective trio of par-fours in the world (524, 566 and 526 yards), providing a stiff test for players down the stretch. Four of the five par-fives are at least 606 yards apiece. The shortest par-three is 197 yards. Wide fairways help the competitors, but Crocodile River runs through the course and 11 holes feature a water hazard, and there are several elevation changes to add to the challenge. The 2021 Blair Atholl Championship on the Sunshine Tour and last year's South African Open are the only two professional events which have been staged at Blair Atholl

Story of last year Thriston Lawrence fell over the line in front, despite carding a Sunday 74

Weather forecast Sunny and calm throughout, temperatures peaking at 30C

Type of player suited to the challenge Altitude is not enough to mask the fact that this giant track demands long hitting and is a bomber's paradise

Key attribute Power

Spotlight insight 

The last five South African Opens have been won by a South African

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