Steve Palmer's Dubai Desert Classic predictions & free golf betting tips plus get £40 in bonuses with Betfred

When to bet on the Dubai Desert Classic

By 3.10am on Thursday

It's also worth noting that Betfred are offering £40 in bonuses when new customers bet on golf 

Where can I watch the Dubai Desert Classic

By 3.10am on Thursday

Steve Palmer's Dubai Desert Classic predictions

Nicolai Hojgaard
3pts each-way 22-1 bet365

Laurie Canter
2pts each-way 45-1 bet365

Richard Mansell
1pt each-way 90-1 bet365

New customers can get £40 in bonuses when they bet on the Dubai Desert Classic with Betfred

Steve Palmer's Dubai Desert Classic preview

Tommy Fleetwood and Rory McIlroy headlined the Dubai Invitational last week, finishing first and second after a thrilling duel, and the Ryder Cup pals are back in action in the same city on Thursday for the Dubai Desert Classic.

Fleetwood has a poor Emirates record for a player of his stature, so the Dubai resident can be left alone as he bids for back-to-back success. Having competed in Hawaii before the Dubai Invitational, Fleetwood may be lacking for mental energy over the weekend of the Desert Classic.

McIlroy, who adores the Emirates and has won three times there, is much more difficult to turn down. This week's layout suits him much better than last week's, so the short prices are justified.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Nicolai Hojgaard 22-1

Great Dane Nicolai Hojgaard won the DP World Tour Championship in fine style in November and may be set for more glory in Dubai on Sunday.

Hojgaard failed to sparkle in his two previous visits to the Emirates, but over time he should prove that this layout is ideal for his power-packed game. The Emirates is a playground for big-hitters – a course made for strong drivers – underlined by victories for Paul Casey, Viktor Hovland and McIlroy in the last three editions of the Desert Classic.

McIlroy is the only one of that trio teeing up this week – and the Northern Irishman clearly has an outstanding chance – but preference at the odds is for Hojgaard. The 22-year-old's career has taken off – he has a PGA Tour card for this season in his pocket – and he can attack the Emirates in a free and fearless fashion over the next four days.

Hojgaard had some rust in his system in last week's Dubai Invitational, finishing 25th of 60, but Dubai Creek was tight and fiddly in comparison to the Emirates. Expect one of the most exciting youngsters in the sport to open his shoulders and enjoy himself this week, contending for a fourth DP World Tour title. Hojgaard's last two DPWT victories have come in the UAE.

Next best bet

Laurie Canter 45-1

DPWT maiden Laurie Canter should be more relaxed the next time he gets into contention for a title. The Bath man has let some chances slip through the years, but a switch to LIV Golf made him rich, so money no longer provides an extra layer of pressure. He won more than $5 million from his LIV adventures.

Canter is back on the DPWT and tees up this week at an ideal course. He is one of the best drivers in the business and understandably fell in love with the Emirates on his Desert Classic debut in 2021, finishing fourth. That came after his fifth-place finish in the 2020 DPWT Championship in Dubai.

Canter was fourth in the Australian Open in the first week of December, then runner-up in the Mauritius Open. If he carries that pre-Christmas form to the Emirates, he seems a likely contender. Canter has been living in Dubai since November – he is spending a few months there while work is being done on his Bath base – so the 34-year-old is nicely acclimatised in the region.

Other selection

Richard Mansell 90-1

Another English DPWT maiden can make a bold bid for glory – Richard Mansell can complete a trio of top-class drivers in the staking plan. Mansell is such a solid ball-striker that it seems only a matter of time before a breakthrough arrives when he enjoys a positive week on the greens. There is nothing intimidating about the flat dancefloors of the Emirates, so maybe this could be Mansell's moment.

The Cannock man played well in Australia just before Christmas, finishing 22nd in the Aussie PGA and 21st in the Aussie Open, and 14th place in the Dubai Invitational was a bright start to 2024. He carded four under-par rounds.

Mansell finished 51st on his Desert Classic debut last season, but much better can be expected from the 28-year-old greens-in-regulation machine this time.

Course guide for the Dubai Desert Classic

• Course Emirates Golf Club, Dubai, United Arab Emirates
• Prize money $9m ($1.5m to the winner)
• Length 7,428 yards
• Par 72 – four par-fives; ten par-fours; four par-threes
• Field 132 The cut Top 65 and ties qualify for round three
• Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Rory McIlroy (2), Brian Harman (9), Tommy Fleetwood (11), Tyrrell Hatton (15), Cameron Young (25)
• Course records - 72 holes 264 Bryson DeChambeau (2019) 18 holes 61 Ernie Els (1994)
• Course winners taking part Thomas Bjorn, Rory McIlroy (three times), Rafa Cabrera Bello, Stephen Gallacher (twice), Haotong Li
• When to bet By 3.10am on Thursday
• When to watch Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 3.30am on Thursday
• Time difference Dubai is four hours ahead of the UK and Ireland
• Last week – Dubai Invitational 1 T Fleetwood (8-1), T2 R McIlroy (11-4), T Lawrence (33-1), 4 J Smith (28-1), 5 F Molinari (125-1), T6 S Crocker (80-1), Z Lombard (55-1), T8 T Olesen (18-1), Y Paul (28-1)
• Course type Desert
• Course overview Emirates Golf Club has been used for the Desert Classic since 1989 apart from a two-year switch to Dubai Creek from 1999 to 2000. Traditionally the Emirates has been a low-scoring track where something approaching or passing 20 under par has been required for victory. The back nine is the scoring half, with three par-fives (the tenth, 13th and 18th) and two relatively short par-threes (11th and 15th). Water comes into play on ten holes, but fairly straightforward, flat greens mean the competitors can relax once they have got putter in hand
• Story of last year Rory McIlroy and Patrick Reed had an intense final-round duel – the PGA Tour loyalist defeating the LIV rebel by a shot
• Weather forecast Sunny and warm throughout, with light to moderate breezes
• Type of player suited to the challenge The Emirates has traditionally been a big-hitters' track and the champions usually make their score on the par-fives. Those who can hit it long and fairly straight, and are comfortable in desert conditions, should thrive
• Key attribute Power

Steve Palmer's Dubai Desert Classic key stat

Seven of the last 11 Desert Classic winners finished in the top ten of the driving distance stats

Get £40 in Betfred bonuses when you bet on the Dubai Desert Classic

We’ve already mentioned that Betfred are offering £40 in bonuses including £30 in free bets when you bet on the Dubai Desert Classic

You can follow these simple steps to grab £40 in Betfred bonuses to place on Steve Palmer’s Dubai Desert Classic tips – it's fast, secure and straightforward.

1. Head over to Betfred through this link
2. Register & Deposit. Make sure to use promo code WELCOME40
3. Place a bet of £10+ on sports in one transaction
4. Betfred will give you £40 in bonuses including £30 in free bets

Betfred golf Dubai Desert Classic betting sign-up offer: terms and conditions

It's worth taking a few minutes to read through the terms and conditions associated with the new golf betting sign-up offer before signing up. Doing so will help you get a better grasp of this Betfred free bets offer and what's expected of you as a new customer.

• New UK customers
• 18+ only
• Register (excl. 13/04/2024) with promo code WELCOME40
• Bet £10+ on sports in one transaction within seven days of registering
• Get £30 in Free Bets & £10 free spins within ten hours of bet settlement
• Bonuses expire seven days after issue
• Min odds, eligibility & payment exclusions apply
• Visit Betfred for additional T&Cs
• Gamble responsibly
• For more info visit www.begambleaware.org

Click for free bets and betting offers from the Racing Post

Commercial notice: This article contains affiliate links. Offers are handpicked and come from operators our experts have first-hand experience of. Opening an account via one of these links will earn revenue for the Racing Post, which will be used to continue producing our award-winning coverage of horseracing and sports betting.