Weekend Gaelic football predictions and GAA betting tips: It could pay to forgive Down last weekend's blip

Best bets

Down -5
4pts 8-11 BoyleSports, Paddy Power

Over 2.5 goals in Down v Longford
3pts 5-4 BoyleSports

Weekend Gaelic football predictions

Down v Longford

7pm Saturday, GAAGO

A preliminary quarter-final would not have been on Conor Laverty's agenda for Down but that is where they have ended up after losing out to Meath last week, depriving them of a direct route to the last eight of the competition.

The final scoreline of 1-11 to 1-9 only paints some of the picture from Parnell Park, though. The fact Down kicked a staggering 16 wides gives a better indication of why there was an upset and how the pre-match 4-7 favourites were beaten. 

That's not to say Down were a vastly superior side to Meath, but they were certainly every bit as good as them and paid the ultimate price for wayward shooting and bad shot selection. 

It could pay to keep the faith with the Morne men, however, and they are fancied to defy a five-point handicap against Longford with the minimum of fuss. Indeed, it wouldn't be a surprise if they were to win by a double-figure margin. 

Meath set up very defensively against Down meaning scores were harder to come by than in their previous two outings in Group 2 of the Tailteann Cup where they kicked 2-14 in the win over Waterford and 2-18 against Tipperary. 

Longford were dumped out of the Leinster Championship by Offaly and things haven't got much better for them in the Tailteann Cup. They have conceded 2-16 to Limerick, 2-9 to Wicklow and 2-13 to Carlow - an average of almost 19 points per game. 

If Pat Havern is on song with the frees and players such as Shealan Johnston, Liam Kerr and Odhran Murdock can get some space up front, this ought to be a straightforward assignment for Down. 

They are a team on the up under Laverty and last week's loss to Meath may prove to be just a minor bump on the road back to challenging for Ulster titles in the next three or four years.

Given that Down have scored five goals in three Tailteann Cup games and games involving Longford have seen 11 goals scored over the last few weeks, it is certainly worth backing three or more goals at 5-4 as well as supporting the hosts to defy the handicap. 

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