Gaelic football predictions and betting tips: Monaghan to edge Ulster decider

Free GAA football tips, best bets and match previews for this weekend's Leinster and Ulster championship fixtures.

Best bets

Monaghan
4pts 10-11 BoyleSports

Monaghan over 16.5 points
3pts Evs BoyleSports

Monaghan over 1.5 goals
2pts 2-1 BoyleSports

Meath +9
3pts 4-5 BoyleSports

Meath over 1.5 goals
2pts 7-2 BoyleSports

Westmeath to lead at half-time
1pt 100-30 Paddy Power

Derry v Monaghan

4pm Sunday - BBC Sport NI

Derry are a coming force in Ulster but the layers have read far too much into their shock victory over Tyrone.

That 11-point win - 1-18 to 0-10 - was indeed impressive but they met a lethargic Tyrone side who appeared to be suffering a stinging hangover from their All-Ireland success.

Anything that could have gone wrong did go wrong for Tyrone and it is worth remembering they finished with just 13 players on the pitch after Ben Kennedy and Conor McKenna were dismissed.

Kennedy's sending off in the 27th minute was the turning point and Derry never looked back. They will encounter an entirely different challenge and system when they welcome Monaghan to the Athletic Grounds.

Monaghan kick the ball a lot more than Tyrone do and they have more natural scorers too. Jack McCarron is finally fulfilling his early potential and kicked seven points in their 0-23 to 2-7 win over Down. He has taken the pressure off Conor McManus, who ought to be returning to peak fitness. Gary Mohan also adds an extra dimension to the Monaghan attack.

Monaghan went down by just a single point in last year's Ulster final, losing out 0-16 to 0-15 to Tyrone, and the current crop have been dining at the top table for the last decade with provincial titles won in 2013 and 2015.

Derry, meanwhile, have not won an Ulster championship since 1998 and the last time they appeared in a provincial final was way back in 2011. Indeed that was their only appearance in the decider since 2000.

Derry have one Ulster final appearance in 22 years to their name, and yet, find themselves vying for favouritism against a proven side like Monaghan. That makes little sense and it is worth taking full advantage of the shade of odds-on about a Monaghan win.

Monaghan scored 0-23 in their win over Down on the back of notching 3-13 in their last-gasp victory over Dublin in the league which cemented their Division 1 status, but you can back them at evens to score 17 points or more against Derry, who were unable to secure promotion from Division 2 and conceded 2-11 to Meath in the last round of the league.

Monaghan may not have found the net against Down but they netted a goal in five of the last six rounds of the league and it is hard to resist having a little nibble on them scoring two or more goals at 2-1.

Meath v Dublin

4.30pm Sunday

Six points separated Dublin and Meath (2-16 to 1-13) when they met at the same stage of last year's Leinster championship, and there was a fleeting moment with five minutes remaining when the shock of all shocks looked on.

Fast forward ten months and Dublin are no longer All-Ireland champions and have been relegated to Division 2 of the league, yet the handicap remains at eight points for their eagerly-awaited showdown with arch rivals Meath. In fact, you can get 4-5 about Meath staying within nine points on an alternative handicap with BoyleSports.

Dublin may have looked back to somewhere near their best in their wide-margin win over Wexford and Con O'Callaghan's 1-5 was a timely reminder of how important he is to their cause, but it was only Wexford.

Meath have a strong spine this year with Conor McGill at three, Donal Keoghan at six and Brian Menton and Ronan Jones in midfield. They look in a better place this year than they were last.

They arrive back at Croke Park with a deeper squad, epitomised by substitutes Matthew Costello and Jack Flynn notching second-half goals against Wicklow.

Dublin have had serious goalkeeping problems since Stephen Cluxton retired, while their full-back line is lacking height so Meath could get goals. They netted four times in the win over Wicklow and two against Derry and Down in the league.

Whether their direct approach results in goals or not, a nine-point handicap start looks much too generous.

Kildare v Westmeath

2.15pm Sunday

Kildare's class ought to shine through in Sunday's opener at Croke Park but there could be a few scares for their supporters along the way and the 10-3 about Westmeath leading at half-time looks decent value.

The Lilywhites have proven themselves to be the second-best team in Leinster and it is hard to envisage Westmeath staying with them for 70 minutes.

But given Westmeath were 1-9 to 0-4 to the good at the halfway mark against Longford and 2-11 to 0-5 in front by 50 minutes, there is a definite chance they can give a strong account before the break.

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