Gaelic Football predictions and betting tips: It could be raining goals in Kerry

Free GAA tips, best bets and match previews for this weekend's provincial football finals.

Best bets

Over 2.5 Kerry goals
3pts 11-8 BoyleSports, Paddy Power

Over 3.5 Kerry goals
2pts 7-2 BoyleSports

Over 4.5 Kerry goals
1pt 17-2 Paddy Power

Kildare
1pt 7-1 Betfair, Paddy Power

Kildare +7
3pts 10-11 BoyleSports

Kildare to lead at half-time
1pt 100-30 Paddy Power

Galway -2
2pts 11-10 Paddy Power

Donegal -1
2pts 6-5 BoyleSports

Already advised (April 23)

Donegal to win Ulster
4pts 10-3 Betfair, Paddy Power

Galway to win Connacht
2pts 3-1 general

Kerry v Limerick

RTE2, 3pm Saturday

For Jack O'Connor and Kerry the Munster final is merely a chance to sharpen a few edges. They are 1-100 to win in 70 minutes so the outcome should be a formality, but the one area they will be keen to improve upon is getting goals.

Despite completely and utterly dominating the second half of the provincial semi-final against Cork, they failed to find the net in that impressive 0-23 to 0-11 victory. They had some decent chances but didn't take them and often opted for easy points when a goal was on.

They are going to have to go for the jugular when it gets to the business end of the All-Ireland championship and O'Connor may well try to start that process now. Expect Kerry to go for goals and expect them to score quite a few.

The Kingdom scored a goal against every team they played in the top tier of the league and got three in their 15-point demolition of Mayo in the final as well as in round four against Monaghan. They netted two against All-Ireland champions Tyrone.

This, after all, is arguably the most lethal attacking unit Kerry have ever had with David Clifford, Sean O'Shea, Paul Geaney and Stephen O'Brien among their options up front. There are potential scorers everywhere you look.

Limerick conceded goals to Longford, Wicklow, Westmeath and Louth twice in the league. Their rearguard unit could be in for a rude awakening.

You can get 11-8 about Kerry getting three goals but that should arguably be odds-on. They could get as many as five goals so investing in over 2.5, 3.5 and 4.5 goals looked the best betting play for the Munster final.

Dublin v Kildare

RTE2, 5pm Saturday

It is hard to explain just how poor Meath were in the Leinster semi-final and a 13-point victory for Dublin did not do their superiority justice. The Royals were absolutely awful from minute one to minute 70.

The consensus seems to be that Dublin are back as All-Ireland contenders but that is based on wins over Wexford and Meath and they could still be lagging a bit behind Kerry. Kildare could pose them plenty of problems.

Meath lacked pace and scoring power up front whereas Kildare have both in abundance. Jimmy Hyland, Daniel Flynn, Ben McCormack and Paul Cribinn will present the Dubs with a much sterner assignment than the one presented by the Royals.

A seven-point start at 10-11 with BoyleSports is too tempting to turn down and it is also worth having a nibble on the Lilywhites leading at half-time at 100-30. For all that this is a different Dublin side from the one relegated from the top tier of the league, it would be foolish to forget Kildare beat the Dubs in the league in February.

Backing Dublin to defy a seven-point handicap would requite a ten-point turnaround from that outing and Dublin do not look to have improved, or Kildare to have regressed, as much as that since February.

If Con O'Callaghan and Ciaran Kilkenny are marshalled better than Meath managed, the Leinster final ought to be in the melting pot come the final quarter. With that in mind, having small stakes on an upset at 7-1 is not the worst idea.

Galway v Roscommon

RTE2, 1.45pm Sunday

Galway were five points too good for Roscommon when the sides met in last year's provincial semi-final and the Tribesmen look a better side in 2022 than they were in 2021 so are fancied to defy a two-point handicap in what promises to be a cracking Connacht decider.

Roscommon have made progress this season too with Anthony Cunningham bringing highly-regarded coach Peter Tormey into his backroom team and it was hard not to be impressed with the way they dismantled Sligo. They appeared to be flowing nicely but Galway could have too much firepower up front.

Galway were 1-14 to 0-11 in front of Mayo with six minutes of normal time remaining in their Connacht opener. They completely outplayed last year's All-Ireland finalists to that point and a repeat of that should suffice here.

Galway had eight different scorers in that game and if Shane Walsh is on song, a 47th Connacht title should be secured with a bit to spare.

Derry v Donegal

RTE2 & BBC Sport NI, 4pm Sunday

Derry are a coming force in Ulster but Donegal have been there and done it so Declan Bonner's chares look decent value at odds against to defy a one-point handicap.

This is Donegal's tenth Ulster final in just 12 years whereas Derry are in their first provincial decider since 2011 and, prior to that, they didn't appear in one since 2000. They lost both and haven't been Ulster champions since 1998. That drought could continue.

Derry's progress has been built on getting goals at crucial stages in games but Donegal didn't concede a goal against either Armagh or Cavan and kept clean sheets against Mayo and Tyrone in the league as well.

Rory Gallagher's side will struggle to find the keys to unlock this Donegal defence and, for that reason, Donegal should continue their domination of Ulster.

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