'She is one of the best jockeys out there and a ridiculous 50-1 for the title' - your 2024 Flat turf season questions answered

The 2024 Flat turf season is in its infancy and the action ramps up this weekend with the 2,000 and 1,000 Guineas taking place at Newmarket. Looking ahead to what promises to be a fascinating campaign our resident Punting Club judges Harry Wilson, Joe Eccles and Liam Headd are on hand to discuss the hot topics and their best wagers . . . 

Does anyone represent value against the odds-on William Buick in this year’s Flat jockeys’ championship?
James Gibson-Wynes

Joe Eccles: While it will be difficult to stop William Buick from retaining his title plenty can happen between now and British Champions Day and the value may lie in opposing him with Rossa Ryan. Ryan rode more than 200 winners in 2023 and his 66 winners this year have come for 34 different trainers. The 5-1 available looks too big.  

Harry Wilson: We've seen Willie Mullins become the first Irish winner of the British jumps trainers' championship for 70 years, so why couldn't we see a first female winner of the Flat jockeys' title? Hollie Doyle is one of the best jockeys out there and has ridden over 100 winners every year since 2019, breaking 150 three times. She finished second in 2022 championship and while she was fifth last year, she had significantly fewer rides than any of the previous five seasons. The 50-1 about her with William Hill is a ridiculous price, although I'm drawn to the 25-1 on offer with a 40+ handicap with the same firm, which you get a quarter of the odds for a top-four finish.

Liam Headd: Champion jockey William Buick has been in a world of his own in recent years, but I think the title race will be a little more wide open this season. Buick will obviously be involved in all the key races being affiliated with Godolphin, while I’m sure Oisin Murphy would love to mount another challenge, but I’m surprised to see Silvestre de Sousa priced at 16-1. The three-time champion jockey has returned to Britain in fine form, and he made his mark when landing the bet365 Mile with Charyn last week. He knows what it takes to win the championship, while he’s been riding for the likes of Roger Varian and Andrew Balding, so he’s certainly going to give it his best shot if the opportunities continue to be sent his way. 

What are your thoughts on the 2,000 and 1,000 Guineas?
Oliver Leese

Joe Eccles: Inisherin merits each-way support at 40-1 in the 2,000 Guineas. He belied odds of 50-1 when chasing home recent Blue Riband Trial winner Bellum Justum in a maiden over the 2,000 Guineas course and distance on his debut in September and showed push-button acceleration to win a Newcastle novice by three and a half lengths last month. The runner-up has since bolted up by ten lengths and trainer Kevin Ryan sent out last year’s 125-1 runner-up Hi Royal. In Sunday’s 1,000 Guineas, I’m siding with Dance Sequence. She will come forward for her reappearance second in the Nell Gwyn and the extra furlong is sure to suit.

Harry Wilson: It was hard to not be impressed by City Of Troy last year, but I wouldn't be taking odds-on about any horse in a 2,000 Guineas, and Rosallion is a much better bet at 5-1. He was mightily impressive in the Jean-Luc Lagardere when last seen and the form of his Pat Eddery Stakes success couldn't have worked out better. If the ground became a lot more testing it would be a slight worry, but his pedigree suggests he will thrive over a mile and his family usually progress with age. If you can get extra places, the each-way plays would be Task Force, who did so well to finish second in the Middle Park given he's bred for this distance, and Alyanaabi, who should improve for the step up to a mile and getting back on better ground. As for the 1,000 Guineas, I wouldn't be looking any further than Fallen Angel. She powered home in the Moyglare, looking better the further she went, and has been pleasing Karl Burke with her work.

Rosallion: fancied for the 2,000 GuineasCredit: Edward Whitaker

Liam Headd: City Of Troy has long been the ante-post favourite for the 2,000 Guineas, and it’s clear to see why given how impressive his juvenile campaign was for Aidan O’Brien. There are, however, a couple of notable runners who I think can outrun their odds. One of them is the Clive Cox-trained Ghostwriter, who has done nothing wrong in three starts and improved a significant amount on Racing Post Ratings. I can see him running a big race. The other one is Charlie Hills’s Iberian, who obviously has a bit to find on City Of Troy from the Dewhurst but is capable of plenty more. I believe the 1,000 Guineas is a lot harder to call. Fallen Angel and Ylang Ylang have demonstrated their ability at the top level, while Dance Sequence has also enjoyed success at the track. The Andrew Balding-trained See The Fire is one to seriously consider. Although she finished third in the bet365 Fillies’ Mile, she shaped with promise and was only beaten just over a length behind Ylang Ylang. It looks like there’s more to come from her.

Could you give me a trainer and a jockey who it could pay to follow throughout the season?
Allan Morton

Joe Eccles: Manton-based Ollie Sangster made a promising start to his training career last season and I expect him to kick on in 2024. A setback forced Sangster’s Shuwari to miss the 1,000 Guineas but she can make her mark in Group 1 company this season. Stablemates Per Contra and Suspicion also look like handicappers to follow. The all-weather has proved to be an excellent springboard for young jockeys and it could pay to follow apprentices Tommie Jakes and Jack Doughty this season, both riders impressed over the winter.         

Harry Wilson: This could be a big year for a couple of fellow Harrys, namely Charlton and Eustace. Charlton has sent out nine winners from 30 runners (30 per cent strike-rate) in his first year as the sole name on the licence, and can have big hopes for recent Sandown scorer Okeechobee, while Eustace has taken on some well-handicapped horses from William Jarvis and is very capable of getting one ready, evidenced by his successes at the last two Royal Ascots. They're certainly not new names by any stretch of the imagination, but I will certainly be following James Doyle and Silvestre de Sousa this season. Doyle, who stepped away for Godolphin after nine years, has landed a job with Wathnan Racing, an emerging force in racehorse ownership, while three-time champ De Sousa has been firing in winners since returning from Hong Kong and can do light weights, so is worth watching in big handicaps.

Liam Headd: It is hard to ignore the impressive start Richard Hughes has made this year. The Lambourn trainer is floating above the 30 per cent mark for his strike-rate this term and he is almost halfway to surpassing his tally from last year. Hughes enjoyed his best season in terms of prize-money last year and he is certainly one to keep on side. Regarding a jockey to follow, I believe Saffie Osborne has the ability to improve on last season’s record-breaking campaign. The 22-year-old reached 70 winners in Britain last year, but she has already made a strong start with 21 to her name and she seems to be picking up more rides. She has her first Classic ride in the 2,000 Guineas on Saturday, so maybe that is a sign of things to come. 

Hi Punting Club, who do you fancy for the Derby?
Nathan Briggs

Joe Eccles: Arabian Crown has done nothing but improve and seems very uncomplicated, so must enter the Derby picture. I was impressed by this win in last month’s Classic Trial at Sandown where he hit the line strongly, and on that evidence, he’s going to improve for a step up to 1m4f. 

Arabian Crown: an impressive winner at SandownCredit: Alan Crowhurst

Harry Wilson: The one I'm looking forward to seeing this year is Los Angeles, who won the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud when last seen. The form of that has been significantly boosted by the fourth, Ramadan, whose two wins since include a defeat of the talented Beauvatier, and the fifth, Bracken's Laugh, who was far too good for Capulet, whose form ties in with a few fancied runners among the Guineas and Derbies, at Chelmsford last month. He's a big horse, so it's to his credit what he achieved at two, and he'll have no problem coping with a mile and a half or better ground.

Liam Headd: Obviously the Derby picture will become a lot clearer after this weekend, so I’ll be interested to see how Ghostwriter runs ahead of a possible crack at the Derby for Cox. He handled the step up in trip to a mile when winning the Royal Lodge in September, so he’ll get the mile in the 2,000 Guineas and the step up to a mile and a half in the Derby is not out of the question. City Of Troy is obviously the number one chance for Ballydoyle, but Henry Longfellow has looked better with each start and a big run in the French Guineas could fire him into the equation at Epsom.

Has anything caught your eye for Royal Ascot?
Daniel Jackson

Joe Eccles: Aesop’s Fables developed into a smart sprinter last season, placing in the Abbaye and at the Breeders’ Cup and he represents value at 20-1 for the King Charles III Stakes. Aidan O’Brien’s colt looks all speed and can be forgiven his underwhelming reappearance effort at Naas last Sunday, where the ground was softer than ideal and he was at a disadvantage racing against the stands’ side rail. He got better with racing last season and I expect him to have been trained with Royal Ascot in mind this term.    

Harry Wilson: The lightly raced Quddwah's two wins as a three-year-old were working out well before he took his form to a whole new level in taking the Listed Paradise Stakes, getting the better of the 105-rated Docklands with a further two lengths back to the 112-rated Maljoom. He was conceding plenty of experience to his four rivals and still showed plenty of signs of greenness there, so you mark that run up, and he is definitely an exciting prospect for the season, with the Queen Anne looking a suitable race at Royal Ascot.

Liam Headd: As mentioned earlier, Iberian has been a steady performer for Hills and his run in the 2,000 Guineas will probably determine whether connections go for the St James’s Palace Stakes over a mile or the Commonwealth Cup over six furlongs. He looks like a Group 1 horse in the making, so he is one to keep an eye on at the royal meeting. I was at Haydock for Lake Forest’s winning debut for William Haggas and I was taken aback by his performance that day. You can put a line through his run in the Middle Park as it came at the end of a busy juvenile season, but he showed more than enough in five starts to look one for the future. He’s currently 33-1 for the Commonwealth Cup and that could be a cracking price at this stage to take. A couple of other names to throw into the hat are Okeechobee and Poker Face. The former recorded a career-best when landing the Gordon Richards last weekend and is 16-1 for the Prince of Wales’s, while Poker Face ran strongly in defeat in the bet365 mile and 12-1 for the Queen Anne is worth considering. 

Read these next:

Confirmed runners and riders for the Qipco 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket on Saturday 

2024 Qipco 2,000 Guineas contenders: assessing the key runners for the big race on Saturday 

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