Wimbledon men's semi-final predictions & tennis betting tips: Sinner may not be embarrassed by dominant Djokovic

Where to watch

Live on BBC One, BBC Two & BBC iPlayer, from 1.30pm Friday

Best bets

Carlos Alcaraz -3.5 games v Daniil Medvedev
1pt 7-10 Hills

Jannik Sinner to win at least one set v Novak Djokovic
2pts 7-10 Coral, Ladbrokes

Wimbledon men's semi-finals preview 

There could hardly be a better line-up for the Wimbledon men's singles semi-finals with clear market leaders Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz joined by Jannik Sinner, another of the sport's most promising young players, and the ultra-consistent Daniil Medvedev, who beat Djokovic in straight sets in the US Open final in 2021.

These four players were the top four in the outright betting before the start of the tournament, but where it was 20-1 bar the top two before the third major of the season got under way in south-west London, Sinner and Medvedev can now each be backed at 12-1.

The big mover since the quarter-finals, though, is Alcaraz. The Spaniard, who overcame gutsy Dane Holger Rune in the last eight, is 11-4 having been 7-2 at the outset, while Djokovic, 8-13 before day one of Wimbledon, is now 8-15 tops with the regular oddsmakers.

Carlos Alcaraz v Daniil Medvedev predictions

There is a feeling that Alcaraz may be vulnerable against Daniil Medvedev after the top seed struggled to shake off the challenge of Rune in the quarter-finals while Medvedev finally found a way to lower the colours of Christopher Eubanks, whose performance in reaching the last eight was arguably the individual best of the tournament.

But while Alcaraz is still young aged 20 and Medvedev is still improving on grass, it's possible that their semi-final encounter could be slightly more one-sided than bookmakers are anticipating.

Alcaraz is showing that he may possibly be even more dynamic for his age on fast courts than his illustrious compatriot Rafael Nadal was. Meanwhile Medvedev, notwithstanding his admirable consistency, can still be vulnerable on occasions. For example, he had to dig deep to see off Eubanks in five sets, while he also needed to fight back from the loss of the opening set against Marton Fucsovics in the last 32.

Medvedev is unlikely to be able to afford such a luxury to world number one Alcaraz.

It's a slight surprise to see that Alcaraz isn't asked to give up more of a handicap start than 3.5 games, because he looks capable of winning a set or two by a wider margin. 

Things could obviously get tougher for favourite backers should Medvedev win more than one set but Alcaraz, who has dropped sets against only big-serving Nicolas Jarry and 2021 Wimbledon finalist Matteo Berrettini, could be good enough to prevail within four sets.

Medvedev fans will take heart from the fact that he won 28 of his 29 first-service points in his abbreviated fourth-round clash with Jiri Lehecka, in which the Czech retired when 6-4 6-2 in arrears. But while Lehecka is dangerous on grass, Alcaraz is likely to provide Medvedev, who posted only 52 winners compared to Eubanks' tally of 74 in the last eight, with a tougher test of his title credentials.

It's 1-1 in the personal series between Alcaraz and Medvedev. The Muscovite won their first clash at Wimbledon 6-4 6-1 6-2 in 2021, but Alcaraz returned the favour when triumphing 6-3 6-2 in the Indian Wells Masters in March.

Jannik Sinner v Novak Djokovic predictions

Novak Djokovic was so solid in defeating Hubert Hurkacz that the oddsmakers can barely envisage defeat when he meets Jannik Sinner for a place in the final.

However, of the two men's semi-finals, there may well be more upset potential in this last-four rumble.

Djokovic has been superb and will probably find a way to win. But the super Serb is far from certain to keep on weaving his magic at the age of 36 against an opponent who led him by two sets to nil in their quarter-final clash at the All England Club 12 months ago.

Perhaps this time Djokovic, who had easily seen off Sinner in their first meeting on clay in the Monte Carlo Masters in 2021, won't be so easily surprised as he was in their first grass encounter, which the seven-time champion won 5-7 2-6 6-3 6-2 6-2.

But let's not forget that this time Sinner has Darren Cahill, one of tennis's finest coaches, in his team and you can be sure that no stone will have been left unturned ahead of such an important match.

Sinner has dropped just two sets at Wimbledon this year - the first to powerful Frenchman Quentin Halys in round three and the second in the last eight against Roman Safiullin.

Djokovic has also lost just two sets in the first five rounds. The first, against Hurkacz, was almost acceptable considering the second seed had done all the hard work to establish a two-set lead over the Pole. However, the set Djokovic dropped in his quarter-final triumph over seventh seed Andrey Rublev should give heart to Sinner supporters.

Sinner, winner of 90 per cent of his first-serve points against Safiullin, can definitely be considered at 8-11 with a handicap start of 6.5 games, but slight preference is for the outsider to win at least one set.

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