How Arsenal took us all by surprise and became Premier League title challengers

Every season the team who finished top of the Premier League won at home to the team who finished bottom. That is 30 times out of 30. So far.

On Friday top-of-the-table Arsenal host bottom-of-the-table Southampton. The outcome is not certain, though. The teams could finish in different positions, and even if they do not the first versus last record could be broken.

Arsenal have wobbled. In their last two games they led 2-0 but only drew 2-2. They have not yet toppled. If they beat Southampton they will be seven points ahead of second-placed Manchester City – though they will have played two games more and must face them at the Etihad on Wednesday.

What fascinates me about Arsenal even more than where they will finish is how they got to where they are from where they started. How did they suddenly become really good, and how unusual is it for a team to improve that much?

Mikel Arteta managed Arsenal for two and a half seasons before this season.  Performances varied, but not by much. Across those two and a half seasons Arsenal scored 1.5 goals per game and conceded 1.1. This season they have scored 2.4 goals per game and conceded 1.0.

They have improved slightly in defence and massively in attack. How did that happen?

Possession shot up, from 53 per cent before to 60 per cent now. Arsenal’s attacks have been longer and their opponents’ attacks have been shorter. They have broken up the opposition’s moves faster and taken more time when appropriate over their own moves.

Arsenal have completed 460 passes per game this season, up from 420 in previous seasons. Their opponents have completed 270 passes per game this season, down from 360 in previous seasons.

What are the consequences?

In previous seasons Arsenal took 13 shots per game and faced 12. Such stats are typical of teams who finish seventh, which was Arsenal’s average finishing position.  This season Arsenal have taken 16 shots per game and faced nine. Those stats are typical of teams who finish first.

Not only have Arsenal taken more shots and faced fewer – a higher proportion of the shots they have taken, and a lower proportion of the shots they have faced, went in.

Now we know what changed. Why did it change?

Arsenal’s payroll in some recent seasons represented seven per cent of the Premier League total. Teams with a payroll of that size average 1.7 points per game. Arsenal in Arteta’s first two and a half seasons averaged 1.7 points per game. This season they have averaged 2.4 points per game. I would be surprised if their basic wage bill, relative to others, is much higher this season than last season.

Between those seasons Arsenal signed Gabriel Jesus and Oleksandr Zinchenko from champions Manchester City and recalled William Saliba from a loan to Marseille. All of them have done well. It was not a foregone conclusion. A lot of clubs add three players who become starters, and while some teams get better as many get worse.

For this season I was anticipating 1.7 points per game from Arsenal. So were bookmakers. I do not remember anyone predicting Arsenal would challenge for the title. It came as a complete shock to everyone outside the club – and, who knows, perhaps to those inside as well.

I do not think there were any reasonable grounds for forecasting Arsenal’s dramatic improvement. How unusual has it been?

Last season Arsenal gained 69 points. If they achieve in the next seven games what they achieved in the previous 31 games they will finish this season with 91 points – 22 more.

I studied every pair of seasons since the Premier League was reduced to 38 games – 26 pairs of seasons from 1995-96 and 1996-97 to 2020-21 and 2021-22. Only nine teams out of 442 improved season-on-season by 22 points or more – just over two per cent. It was almost a 50-1 chance.

Chelsea improved by 43 points to become champions in 2016-17. The previous season had been out of character for them. They gained only 50 points. They might not get any more this season, but that just tells you how bad this season has been.

Leicester improved by 40 points to become champions in 2015-16. The title season was the unexpected one for them. Others who improved by 22 points or more were Everton, Manchester City and West Ham, all once, and Liverpool four times.

Arsenal might not do as well on the last lap as they did on earlier laps. I estimate their most likely points total as 88. So do bookmakers. My estimate anticipates Arsenal slowing down slightly, rather than suggesting they face a tough set of fixtures. The average current position of their remaining opponents is 11th. For a team who are top of the table, typical opponents will be 11th.

If Arsenal finish with 88 points they will have improved by 19 points. In the past only 14 teams out of 442 improved season-on-season by 19 points or more – just over three per cent. The odds were close to 30-1.

If Arsenal win the title they will be congratulated wildly. If they do not, they will be said to have choked. But whatever happens, it is likely they will have accomplished something rare.

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