Formula 1 2023 season predictions, betting tips and winner odds: Hamilton ready to hit back

Best bets

Lewis Hamilton without Max Verstappen
2pts 3-1 Hills

Exact Championship finishing order: 1 Verstappen, 2 Perez, 3 Leclerc
1pt 25-1 Hills

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Formula 1 2023 season predictions

The race for the grand prize never stops, and this year a record 23 races will decide the 2023 Formula 1 drivers’ and constructors’ championships.

In the blue corner, the two-time reigning champion of the world Max Verstappen is the one they all have to beat.

And after a pre-season in which the confident Dutchman’s team cruised serenely to the fastest time of the winter during a trouble-free three days, the signs are that beating Verstappen will be a very tall order indeed.

Drivers’ championship

Verstappen’s chances of a third consecutive drivers' title are undeniable, but bookmakers are well aware of it and there’s little value in his price.

The Dutchman, who won 15 of last season’s 22 races, is just 4-7 to pick up at least ten victories this time, and it’s hard to find an attractive way to back him given that we have to wait until November for any potential payout. Luckily, even if he does run away with the title, the fight behind Verstappen promises to be an enthralling one.

Heading the betting without Verstappen is last year’s early title race pace-setter, Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc.

The Monegasque driver won two of the opening three races of the season while the new Red Bull dealt with some teething issues, building a 46-point lead over Verstappen in that time. 

What followed was a catalogue of disasters for luckless Leclerc. The team made a series of costly strategic errors while they were forced to restrict the power output from their potent engine due to reliability concerns. Driver errors also hampered Leclerc, who crashed out of an uncontested lead in France.

But even if they had done everything right it has to be doubtful that Leclerc would have beaten Verstappen to the title.

In Ferrari’s battles with Mercedes in recent seasons they had a habit of falling off the pace after promising starts, and there seems no obvious reason why that should change in 2023. Team principal Mattia Binotto paid the price for Ferrari’s errors at the end of the season, but his replacement, former Alfa Romeo boss Frederic Vasseur, lacks experience of spearheading a title challenge and most of the other players in last year’s dramas are still in place.

There was nothing wrong with Ferrari’s pre-season showing, but it wasn’t spectacular either, and they don’t appear to have made as much of a forward step with the new car as Red Bull and Mercedes have.

Mercedes are on a comeback mission after their run of eight consecutive constructors’ championships ended in ignominious fashion last year.

Seven-time world champion Lewis Hamilton suffered a winless season for the first time in his 16-year F1 career as the team managed just one victory – George Russell’s Brazilian Grand Prix triumph after Verstappen had already wrapped up the title several races earlier.

But by the end of the season, Hamilton was showing more of his old spark, finishing second in three of the last four races. He also beat renowned quick qualifier Russell 7-2 in qualifying head-to-heads in the nine races following the summer break. While Mercedes didn’t look like world beaters, they are on a different planet compared to where they were this time last year.

Intriguingly, they ran with a barn door of a rear wing on the car in the test – a feature that they have admitted will not be on the Mercedes for the rest of the year.

A lot of Mercedes’ lap-time deficit in testing was on the straights, and such a huge aerodynamic fixture will certainly have held them back in that department.

It’s doubtful that Mercedes will be winning races, at least for a while, but they could well be on a par with Ferrari in terms of performance.

And in a long season, the team’s championship-winning experience and solid driver pairing should help them edge ever closer to their former glories.

Season specials

While there is value in supporting Hamilton, at the available prices it also makes sense to cover the possibility that Mercedes haven't quite got on top of all the issues they faced last year. 

While the majority of media focus during pre-season was on Red Bull’s impressive showing and Mercedes’ dramatic improvement, Ferrari went somewhat under the radar.

They look some way adrift of Red Bull but if Mercedes haven’t eradicated last year’s problems as well as it appears then the Scuderia will still be a clear number two.

Red Bull’s attempts to secure a 1-2 finish in the drivers’ standings fell just short last year, as Leclerc pipped Sergio Perez to second place, but the Mexican is very much in the hunt to go one better if his car is as dominant as it appears.

Odds of 25-1 look too big about a tricast that very nearly came in last year, and would look huge if Mercedes go the wrong way with car development.

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