Steve Palmer's free US Open outright predictions & golf betting tips: our expert bids to follow last week's 66-1 winner

When to bet on the US Open

By 11.45am UK and Ireland time on Thursday

Where can I watch the US Open?

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 11.30am on Thursday

Steve Palmer's US Open predictions

Ludvig Aberg
4pts each-way 25-1 Paddy Power

Joaquin Niemann
3.5pts each-way 28-1 Paddy Power

Patrick Cantlay
3pts each-way 40-1 Paddy Power

Harris English
1.5pts each-way 80-1 Paddy Power

Davis Riley
0.5pt each-way 300-1 bet365

Get 35-1 on Scottie Scheffler to make the cut in the US Open with Paddy Power. Click here to find out how

Steve Palmer's US Open preview

Scottie Scheffler is going off for this week's US Open at the sort of prices seen for Tiger Woods in his pomp. Woods was one of the greatest putters of all time, but even he could not master Oakmont's notoriously difficult greens. Maybe Scheffler will come unstuck on the same putting surfaces this week.

For all his ball-striking class, Scheffler still has spells of bad putting and can miss tiddlers, and lots of short putts at Oakmont have a huge amount of break on them. The rest of the field will be hoping the favourite suffers on these brutal dancefloors.

Bryson DeChambeau put a new set of irons in play last week and is still trying to get comfortable with them, while he said after LIV Virginia that he would need to put a fresh driver in his bag for Oakmont because the one he has been using for three months has worn out. Equipment issues make the defending champion seem a short price, while Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm can also be swerved.

McIlroy's driving has been awful since the Masters and he has been struggling to apply himself properly since completing the Grand Slam at Augusta, while Rahm's fiery temperament will get a searching examination this week. Oakmont is the ultimate test of patience and resilience and the Spanish hothead, who imploded over the closing holes of the US PGA, may struggle to stay calm.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Ludvig Aberg 25-1

Swedish sensation Ludvig Aberg won the Genesis Invitational at Torrey Pines, a US Open venue, in February and he could emerge as the king of Oakmont.

Aberg's approach-play has been inconsistent since his Genesis triumph, but his last five competitive rounds have been hugely encouraging. He closed with a 66 at the Memorial, outscored by only one player that day as he moved up to 16th place, then opened with a pair of 68s in the Canadian Open before weekend rounds of 65 and 66.

Aberg's share of 13th place in Canada last week could have been so much better had he not suffered such an appalling lie in the rough to the left of the par-three 11th in round two. He needed four hacks from the long grass to find the green, carding a seven, but his swing was in generally mint condition all week.

Aberg has got the perfect temperament for Oakmont. The unflappable 25-year-old gained some experience of the course in the 2021 US Amateur and has been back in recent weeks on reconnaissance missions.

This rising star was 12th on his US Open debut last year and has contended for the Masters title in the last two years, finishing runner-up in 2024 and sharing the lead with two holes to play in April before a rough finish. He has already been in the thick of things in Majors and it seems only a matter of time before he wins one.

Next best bet

Joaquin Niemann 28-1

The dominant force on the LIV circuit this year looks ready to challenge for a first Major title. Joaquin Niemann won two LIV events last year and has already lifted four trophies this year, enjoying a 50 percent 2025 success rate in competition with DeChambeau, Rahm, Tyrrell Hatton, Cameron Smith and others.

A former world number one amateur who has been destined for superstardom from a young age, Niemann won his maiden PGA Tour title in the 2019 Greenbrier, which took place in West Virginia. That was across the Pennsylvania border and Niemann won LIV Virginia on Sunday, with only an hour's travel to the US Open venue.

The LIV players had poor preparation for this year's previous Majors, with only one of the first seven LIV events on the calendar taking place in America, but last week's LIV Virginia was an ideal warm-up on a long, soft, Stateside track with heavy rough.

Niemann has the all-round class to handle Oakmont and has finished in the top 50 in all four previous US Open starts as a professional. He has made the cut in his last five Majors, finished eighth in last month's US PGA, and is a 26-year-old at the peak of his powers.

Get 35-1 on Scottie Scheffler to make the cut in the US Open with Paddy Power. Click here to find out how

Other selections

Patrick Cantlay 40-1
Harris English 80-1
Davis Riley 300-1

Another former world number one amateur Patrick Cantlay can threaten a Major breakthrough. The seven-time PGA Tour champion, FedEx Cup winner in 2021 and world number three in 2022, is playing well enough to end a long victory drought this week.

Cantlay, rock-solid off the tee, exceptional on approach, third in the PGA Tour greens-in-regulation statistics, and bright with putter in hand at the Memorial last time out, has posted three top-fives this year. He was fourth in the Truist Championship in his last trip to Pennsylvania last month and has a great record in this region of America.

Cantlay has twice won the Memorial, which is over the Pennsylvania border in Ohio, and the Ryder Cup star has twice won the BMW Championship in states which border Pennsylvania. He was low amateur in the 2011 US Open and has never been outside the top 50 in nine appearances, finishing third last year.

Harris English has never missed a cut in nine US Open starts, finishing 37th at Oakmont in 2016, fourth in 2020, third in 2021 and eighth in 2023. This year he has already won the Farmers Insurance Open at a US Open venue, finished 12th in the Masters and second in the US PGA, where he topped the greens-in-regulation statistics.

English is a five-time PGA Tour champion to respect, while Davis Riley can contend at enormous odds. Riley finished 21st on his Masters debut in April, then tied second with English in the US PGA. Riley, a two-time Korn Ferry Tour champion, won the Zurich Classic pairs event alongside Nick Hardy in 2023, then at Colonial by five shots last year. He has been swinging with confidence from March onwards this year. His A-game seems good enough to win Majors.

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Course guide for the US Open

• Course Oakmont Country Club, Oakmont, Pennsylvania
• Prize money $21.5m ($4.3m to the winner)
• Length 7,372 yards
• Par 70 – two par-fives; 12 par-fours; four par-threes
• Field 156 The cut The top 60 and ties qualify for round three
• Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Scottie Scheffler (1), Rory McIlroy (2), Xander Schauffele (3), Collin Morikawa (4), Justin Thomas (5)
• Course records - 72 holes 276 Dustin Johnson (2016) 18 holes 63 Johnny Miller (1973)
• Course winner taking part Dustin Johnson
• Playoff format Two-hole aggregate playoff, with sudden-death from there if tied
• When to bet By 11.45am UK and Ireland time on Thursday
• When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 11.30am on Thursday
• Time difference Pennsylvania is five hours behind the UK and Ireland
• Last week – Canadian Open 1 R Fox (66-1), 2 S Burns (25-1), 3 K Yu (75-1), T4 Cameron Young (60-1), M McCarty (100-1), T6 B H An (90-1), A Putnam (150-1), M Manassero (300-1); LIV Golf Virginia 1 J Niemann (7-1), T2 G McDowell, A Lahiri, T4 T Pieters, B DeChambeau, P Mickelson, B Watson
• Course type Parkland
• Course overview Oakmont is widely regarded as one of the toughest tests in golf – a long par-70 with thick rough, 168 bunkers, firm fairways and lighting-fast greens – and any under-par 72-hole total should bank a healthy cheque. Oakmont is staging the US Open for a record tenth time – the first was in 1927 and the last was in 2016, when Dustin Johnson triumphed with a four-under-par total. Angel Cabrera won the 2007 US Open there with a five-over-par total, with 18 bogeys on his scorecard. The Henry Fownes design is renowned for its severe poa annua green complexes – the pace and undulations were once described as “almost impossible” by Rocco Mediate. Gil Hanse and Jim Wagner renovated the course in 2023 to prepare it for this championship, fitting a sub-air system under the greens. There are almost no trees left in the interior of the course, giving Oakmont an open, linksy feel
• Story of last year Bryson DeChambeau produced an awesome up and down from a bunker at the 72nd hole to edge Rory McIlroy by a shot at Pinehurst
• Weather forecast Sunny and calm for three days, before a humid, thundery Sunday with the potential for rain
• Type of player suited to the challenge Rain in the US Open build-up meant Oakmont went into US Open week playing soft, with further downpours arriving on Monday, so the track has become more appealing to long drivers. Finding fairways is crucial, though, given the length of the rough, and a sharp short-game essential on fast greens, dried by sub-air technology
• Key attribute Power

Steve Palmer's US Open key stat

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