2023 Tingle Creek at Sandown: assessing the six entries for Saturday's big race
The Betfair Tingle Creek Chase (3.00 Sandown, Saturday) takes place this weekend and a high-class field looks set to take their chance in this 1m7½f Grade 1. Here we go through the form of the six entries and produce an early verdict on who will come out on top.
Jonbon
Form: 1211-1
Strengths: His only two defeats in 13 starts have come at the last two Cheltenham Festivals, chasing home stablemate Constitution Hill in the 2022 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and the high-class El Fabiolo in this year’s Arkle Novices’ Chase.
He is unbeaten in two starts at this track, justifying favouritism in the Henry VIII Novices’ Chase on this card 12 months ago, where he had Boothill eight lengths behind. He ended last season with a victory in the Celebration Chase here, beating Captain Guinness by three and three-quarter lengths.
The Tingle Creek was put forward as his early season target after that success, and he comes into this race on the back of an impressive victory in the Shloer Chase at Cheltenham, for which he earned a career-high Racing Post Rating of 172.
Weaknesses: He is yet to race on heavy ground, so would have to prove he could handle testing conditions should the going deteriorate significantly between now and Saturday.
Odds: 1-3
Captain Guinness
Form: 1222-1
Strengths: A consistent chaser who finished second in three consecutive Grade 1 chases last season, chasing home Blue Lord at Leopardstown, Energumene at Cheltenham and Jonbon in the Celebration Chase at this track.
He kicked off this season with an impressive seven-length win in the Grade 2 Fortria Chase at Navan. That victory produced an RPR of 164, only 1lb below the joint-best figure he posted when chasing home Jonbon.
Weaknesses: He is 0-11 in Grade 1s and 0-6 when racing in Britain.
Odds: 4-1
Edwardstone
Form: 1U25-2
Strengths: He bolted up in the 2021 Henry VIII Novices’ Chase over this course and distance and produced a career-best performance when running out a nine-length winner of this race 12 months ago, which produced an RPR of 171.
He has failed to match that figure since, but the return to Sandown is an obvious plus and his form figures when racing on right-handed tracks currently read an impressive 11111U.
Weaknesses: He has nine and a half lengths to make up with the favourite on that Shloer running and connections have been flirting with the idea of stepping him up in trip (holds a King George entry).
Odds: 15-2
Boothill
Form: 123-11
Strengths: An improving second-season chaser whose form figures over fences currently read 411212311 (5-9).
He is unbeaten in two starts this season, justifying favouritism in a pair of valuable handicap chases at Ascot, and his latest victory produced a career-best RPR of 160.
Weaknesses: He found Jonbon too strong in the Henry VIII Novices’ Chase on this card last season and this represents a significant step up in class from the races that he has recently contested.
Odds: 16-1
Haddex Des Obeaux
Form: U211-F
Strengths: He is less exposed than most in this line-up making just his sixth chase start and he has already showcased some smart form in this sphere, looking like a future Graded performer when bolting up by 19 lengths in a handicap chase at Warwick in January.
He missed a clash with Jonbon in the Kingmaker Novices’ Chase a month later and made his belated reappearance in a handicap chase at Cheltenham in October, where he set a strong pace and still looked in contention when falling at the final fence. That run should have blown away any cobwebs.
Weaknesses: This is far and away his toughest test to date and it is a concern that he jumped out to his left when beaten at Kempton last November on his only previous run going right-handed over fences.
Odds: 16-1
Nube Negra
Form: /12P-3
Strengths: An admirably consistent chaser who has finished out of the first three in only two of his 14 chase starts to date.
A dual winner of the Shloer Chase at Cheltenham, and in between those victories produced respectable efforts in a pair of Grade 1 chases at this track.
Weaknesses: He has not been at his best recently, failing to finish in the Champion Chase before trailing home third behind Edwardstone and Jonbon when bidding for a hat-trick of Shloer wins last month. His strong record when fresh suggests that he is unlikely to come on significantly for that comeback run.
Odds: 25-1
Verdict
It is difficult to see anything but another win for Jonbon, who has vindicated trainer Nicky Henderson’s decision to stay over two miles with wins in the Celebration Chase at this track and more recently the Shloer Chase at Cheltenham. The JP McManus-owned star had reopposing rivals Captain Guinness and Edwardstone behind in those races and he still retains some scope for improvement, so is backed to claim a 12th career win and maintain his unbeaten record away from the Cheltenham Festival.
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