Steve Palmer's US PGA Championship predictions & free golf betting tips: Rory McIlroy set to complete fabulous fortnight

When to bet on the US PGA Championship

By 12.15pm on Thursday

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Where can I watch the US PGA Championship

Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 1pm on Thursday

Steve Palmer's US PGA Championship predictions

Rory McIlroy
5pts each-way 7-1 BoyleSports

Max Homa
3pts each-way 28-1 BoyleSports

Sam Burns
2pts each-way 60-1 Paddy Power

Byeong Hun An
1.5pts each-way 55-1 Betfair, Hills

Akshay Bhatia
1pt each-way 125-1 bet365, Hills

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Steve Palmer's US PGA Championship preview

The world's best two players – Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy – have arrived at this week's US PGA Championship having won their last tournament. The same can be said of Brooks Koepka, winner of three of the last six renewals of the US PGA. Are the big guns peaking for Valhalla?

It certainly seems that way. Scheffler can boast form figures of 1-1-2-1-1 – a stretch which includes victory in the Players Championship and the Masters. He has not competed since the Heritage, though, which concluded almost a month ago. The 27-year-old became a father last week and could easily be unsettled by off-course events.

The break from golf and the intensity of his son's recent birth is enough for the short odds about Scheffler to be resisted, while Koepka's preparation is off-putting. The king of modern Majors deserves great respect, but the 2024 LIV schedule has not given the defending US PGA champion anything in the way of a high-quality warm-up spin.

The week prior to last year's US PGA triumph, Koepka finished fifth in LIV Golf Tulsa, finding a groove for Oak Hill. Bryson DeChambeau and Cameron Smith also featured on the US PGA leaderboard. This time, though, the LIV players have not teed up Stateside since the Masters. LIV Adelaide and LIV Singapore, which Koepka won in the first week of this month, have not offered the LIV representatives much hope of getting sharp for Valhalla.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Rory McIlroy 7-1

There are questions over the US PGA build-up of Scheffler and Koepka, concerns over the state of Ludvig Aberg's left knee and Hideki Matsuyama's back, while Xander Schauffele's lack of comfort on high-pressure Sundays was again exposed last week.

The stage seems set, then, for Rory McIlroy to build on a sensational Wells Fargo Championship performance and end a Majors drought of almost a decade.

McIlroy produced a tee-to-green masterclass in Charlotte last week. His driving was a thing of beauty, allowing him to overwhelm Quail Hollow, and the four-time Major champion is well equipped to repeat the dose at Valhalla.

McIlroy said himself after winning the Wells Fargo by five shots on Sunday that it seems the “stars have aligned” as he has found his A-game in time for a Major where he has winning experience. Only two players in this week's field have won a Major at Valhalla – Tiger Woods and McIlroy. With Woods increasingly becoming a ceremonial golfer, McIlroy tees up ready to boss the event.

Going into his 2014 US PGA triumph at Valhalla, McIlroy had won his previous two tournaments – the Open three weeks prior and the Bridgestone Invitational the week before. History has repeated itself as far as the modern schedule allows, with McIlroy winning the Zurich Classic pairs event alongside Shane Lowry three weeks ago, then the Wells Fargo last week.

An overdue fifth Major title appears on the cards. McIlroy started this year in style, winning the Dubai Desert Classic, before a quiet spell. Third place in the Texas Open was encouraging, then the Zurich Classic provided the perfect post-Masters tonic, teaming up with his pal Lowry for one of the most enjoyable tournaments of his career.

A 17-under-par total at Quail Hollow – a tough par-71 which hosted the 2017 US PGA – proves McIlroy is ready for a similar test at Valhalla. He putted superbly on Sunday on bentgrass greens and gets the same surface this week.

The Northern Irishman has played in 60 Majors and finished in the top ten in half of them. Majors have become a source of frustration – not least when he was runner-up in the US Open last year – but the little master looks primed to claim a third US PGA title on Sunday.

Next best bet

Max Homa 28-1

Max Homa tied for eighth place at Quail Hollow on Sunday in another extremely encouraging performance from an increasingly dangerous member of the golfing elite. Third place in the Masters last month instilled great confidence in the popular 33-year-old.

Homa proved to himself that he could contend for Major titles – his self-belief has sky-rocketed since Augusta – and it underlined a trend of the Californian holding himself together impressively under pressure. He won four points from four matches on his debut for Team USA in the 2022 Presidents Cup, then three-and-a-half points from five matches on his Ryder Cup debut last year.

Homa has a big-time temperament and he can handle long courses. His last PGA Tour victory came at Torrey Pines South, which is one of the longest tracks on the circuit. He won the Nedbank Challenge at the end of last year at another enormous course.

The typically magnificent iron-play of this six-time PGA Tour champion makes him a threat anywhere. He could prove the main threat to McIlroy at Valhalla.

Other selections

Sam Burns 60-1
Byeong Hun An 55-1
Akshay Bhatia 125-1

Sam Burns became a father three weeks ago – just after the Heritage – and has had enough time to adjust to fatherhood and get his game in order for the US PGA. While his best friend Scheffler is probably still feeling foggy, Burns was able to get back to business last week, impressing in the Wells Fargo Championship on his way to 13th place.

Burns started the year well, with sixth place in The American Express followed by tenth at Pebble Beach, third in the Phoenix Open and tenth in the Genesis Invitational, before a quiet spell in the lead-up to his son's birth. With that pressure lifted, expect this five-time PGA Tour champion to be a Valhalla threat. He has won a WGC, played in a Ryder Cup, and seems ready to challenge at an ideal venue.

Byeong Hun An is another superb ball-striker well equipped for this assignment. He became the youngest winner of the US Amateur, aged 17, in 2009 at Southern Hills, which is a regular US PGA venue, then he won on the Challenge Tour in 2014, before a six-shot victory in the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth in 2015.

A few lean years followed, with putting becoming a bugbear, but he won on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2022 and over the last ten months the Korean has enjoyed a serious resurgence, helped by a switch to a broomhandle putter. An finished third in the Scottish Open last summer, then second in the Wyndham Championship, fourth in The Sentry, second in the Sony, eighth at Bay Hill, 16th at Augusta, and in the last fortnight he has finished fourth in the CJ Cup Byron Nelson and third in the Wells Fargo, where he sensationally topped the putting statistics.

Complete your staking plan with Akshay Bhatia, who has won two PGA Tour titles at the age of 22. The courageous Californian won the Texas Open in a playoff a month ago, having carded an incredible 20-under-par 72-hole total thanks to some amazing iron-play.

Bhatia finished 35th on his Masters debut last month, then 18th in the Heritage. Last week some loose driving meant 42nd place of 68 at Quail Hollow, but he is worth chancing at a juicy price on his return to a course where he triumphed in the 2018 Boys Junior PGA Championship. 

Course guide for the US PGA Championship

• Course Valhalla Golf Club, Louisville, Kentucky, USA
• Prize money $17.5m ($3.15m to the winner)
• Length 7,609 yards
• Par 71 – three par-five holes; 11 par-fours; four par-threes
• Field 156 The cut Top 70 plus ties progress to round three
• Highest-ranked players in field Scottie Scheffler (1), Rory McIlroy (2), Xander Schauffele (3), Wyndham Clark (4), Jon Rahm (5)
• Playoff format A three-hole aggregate-score playoff, sudden-death thereafter
• Course records - 72 holes 268 Rory McIlroy (2014) 18 holes 63 Jose Maria Olazabal (2000)
• Course winners taking part Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy
• When to bet By 12.15pm on Thursday
• When to watch Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 1pm on Thursday
• Time difference Kentucky is five hours behind the UK and Ireland
• Last week – Wells Fargo Championship 1 R McIlroy (15-2), 2 X Schauffele (9-1), 3 B H An (40-1), T4 J Day (45-1), S Im (50-1), T6 M Hughes (110-1), D McCarthy (66-1), T8 M Homa (20-1), S Straka (60-1); Myrtle Beach Classic 1 C Gotterup (50-1), T2 A Doherty (300-1), D Thompson (30-1), T4 E Van Rooyen (28-1), R McCormick (200-1), B Hossler (30-1), K Yu (35-1), R Fox (40-1), J Campillo (70-1)
• Course type Parkland
• Course overview Valhalla is a long track with bentgrass greens, designed by Jack Nicklaus and opened in 1986. It staged its first Major in 1996 as Mark Brooks won the US PGA there, then its second in 2000. That was the year Tiger Woods famously beat Bob May in a playoff to win a third consecutive Major title. The 2008 Ryder Cup – a 16.5-11.5 USA victory – was at Valhalla. The course then staged the 2014 US PGA – Rory McIlroy's fourth and last Major success. The layout is wrapped around Floyd's Fork River, which comes into play on several holes, and is known as a difficult but fair test. Most greens are elevated, with run-off areas around them. The front nine is more open and scoreable than the tighter back. The fairways changed from bentgrass to Zeon Zoysiagrass in 2021, creating firmer, faster conditions, and the rough between fairways and fairway bunkers was removed, encouraging balls into sand. The rough in wider spots is juicy and penal after an early spring aided growth
• The story of last year Brooks Koepka defeated Viktor Hovland and Scottie Scheffler by two shots at Oak Hill, New York, to win a third US PGA title
• Weather forecast Wet in the build-up, but sunny, warm and calm for the vast majority of the competition, despite a thunder threat for Friday afternoon. Temperatures between 16C and 29C, with nothing more than a gentle breeze
• Type of player suited to the challenge The course changes since 2021 mean Valhalla puts more of a premium on accurate driving and controlled shotmaking. Precise iron-play is essential to elevated greens which easily repel approaches
• Key attribute Accuracy

Steve Palmer's US PGA Championship key stat

Twenty two of the last 38 US PGA champions were breaking their Major duck

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