Steve Palmer's Valspar Championship final-round golf betting tips and predictions

Where to watch the Valspar Championship

Sky Sports Golf, 11.45am Sunday

Best bets

Cameron Young to win the Valspar Championship
2pts each-way 15-2 bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes

Cameron Young to win 5.30pm twoball
2pts 10-11 Betfair, Power

Adam Svensson to win 5pm twoball
2pts 17-20 Coral, Ladbrokes

Adam Hadwin to win 5.10pm twoball
2pts 4-6 bet365, Betfair, Power

Cameron Young and Keith Mitchell dual forecast
1pt 17-2 bet365

Story so far

Keith Mitchell leads the Valspar Championship by two shots going into the final round at the Copperhead Course, Florida, shortening from 40-1 to 15-8 over the opening 54 holes.

Mitchell holed a seven-iron from 151 yards for eagle at the 18th hole in round three, completing an incredible stretch of four under par for the final three holes, which are known as the 'Snake Pit' due to their difficulty.

Mitchell's only previous PGA Tour victory came in the 2019 Honda Classic. The 32-year-old leads Seamus Power, Mackenzie Hughes and Peter Malnati by two shots, with Cameron Young, Brendon Todd and Chandler Phillips a further shot off the pace.

Pre-tournament 15-2 favourite Xander Schauffele is tied for 34th place, eight shots adrift. Two-time Valspar champion Sam Burns missed the cut, while former world number one Justin Thomas carded a sorry Saturday 79 to drop to a share of 66th place.

Valspar Championship leaderboard

-10 Keith Mitchell
-8 Seamus Power, Mackenzie Hughes, Peter Malnati
-7 Cameron Young, Brendon Todd, Chandler Phillips
-6 Cameron Champ, Adam Hadwin, Rico Hoey, Adam Svensson, Kevin Roy
-5 Ryan Moore, Joseph Bramlett, Carl Yuan, Lee Hodges, K.H. Lee

Best odds for the Valspar Championship

15-8 K Mitchell, 7 M Hughes, 15-2 C Young, S Power, 12 P Malnati, B Todd, 20 A Hadwin, 28 C Phillips, 35 A Svensson, 50 bar

Valspar Championship final-round predictions

Keith Mitchell is a quirky character whose form can come and go in a flash, so there is no urge to take short prices about the world number 72 finishing the job at the Copperhead Course.

Mitchell loves Florida events – his only victory came in the Sunshine State and his record there generally is excellent – so respect is due. But a final-round lead, a fiery temperament and a misbehaving putter could see the short-price favourite quickly unravel.

Mitchell's ball-striking has been excellent this week, as it often is, but his short-game has been fragile. He lies 65th in the putting statistics, so probably needs to keep hitting his approaches tight to flagsticks to kick clear from the front.

Mitchell will be thrilled with the quality of the chasing pack – most of the pre-tournament market principals are too far back to threaten him – but there are a few names that the leader will be hoping make slow starts on Sunday.

The Canadian Adams – Hadwin and Svensson – are well in the hunt from only four shots behind on a layout they love. The main danger to Mitchell, though, seems likely to come from a player a shot ahead of the Canuck duo – Cameron Young.

The fact Young is still a PGA Tour maiden is a source of huge frustration to the 26-year-old. He finished runner-up to Rory McIlroy in the 2022 Open and has four Major top-eights to his name. He is a six-time PGA Tour runner-up, typically beaten by great players. With nothing to fear on this leaderboard, the New York-born slugger will be excited by the opportunity.

Florida-based Young is better suited to more difficult venues due to the quality of his ball-striking. His driving, in particular, is awesome. The main negative against Young this week was that he was making his Valspar debut, but rounds of 69, 69, 68 show how he has quickly fallen in love with Copperhead.

This could be a week where golf punters who did not put too much stock in course experience are rewarded, with in-form Singapore Classic debutant Jesper Svensson winning on the DP World Tour. Young and the Valspar could be a match made in heaven and he could be set to follow his fourth place in the Cognizant Classic earlier this month with an overdue maiden triumph.

The Young-Mitchell dual forecast appeals at 17-2, while Young can be trusted for his twoball against Brendon Todd (5.30pm UK and Ireland time). The Canadian Adams are up against weak opposition, so a Young, Hadwin (versus Rico Hoey), Svensson (versus Kevin Roy) treble is attractive. Three singles is the more cautious way of investing.

A sunny day, with moderate breezes, is forecast, with temperatures peaking at 25C. Mitchell and Seamus Power are due out in the final twoball at 5.50pm.

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