Steve Palmer's Joburg Open predictions and free golf betting tips

When to bet 

By 4.30am on Thursday 

Where to watch the Joburg Open

Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 10am on Thursday

Steve Palmer's Joburg Open predictions

Thriston Lawrence
3.5pts each-way 18-1 general

Nick Bachem
2pts each-way 40-1 general

Casey Jarvis
1.5pts each-way 45-1 bet365

Rupert Kaminski
1pt each-way 250-1 Betfair, Power

Deon Germishuys
1pt each-way 200-1 general

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LIV rebel Dean Burmester and PGA Tour raider Christiaan Bezuidenhout head the betting for the Joburg Open, but neither appear to represent great value. Burmester withdrew from the Dunhill Links after two rounds in October and ended his LIV campaign tamely, while Bezuidenhout withdrew from the Fortinet Championship after one round in the middle of September with a wrist injury.

Bezuidenhout bounced back with sixth spot in the Sanderson Farms Championship last month, but 56th in the Shriners Children's Open last time out was underwhelming. The top two in the betting can be avoided at short odds given small fitness doubts and lack of recent consistency.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Thriston Lawrence 18-1

Burly South African ace Thriston Lawrence can be proud of the way he battled for a PGA Tour card on Sunday, closing the final round of the DP World Tour Championship with three consecutive birdies to finish fifth at the Earth Course.

Lawrence knew he needed some serious fireworks to get into the PGA Tour qualification spots and he nearly pulled it off. The 26-year-old can focus on the DP World Tour for another season and the Joburg Open is the ideal tournament to kick off the new campaign.

Lawrence won the Joburg Open two years ago at a different course, but Houghton GC sets up well for him as well. Last year he had an up and down week – 66-73-73-66 for 33rd place – but on the form he showed in Dubai last week he could prove the man to beat on Sunday.

Lawrence was solid in the Nedbank Challenge two weeks ago and impressive in stellar company in Dubai. A fifth DPWT title could be coming for the increasingly prolific Mbombela man.

Next best bet

Nick Bachem 40-1

German 24-year-old Nick Bachem is a rising star of the DPWT who loves competing in Africa. He made his name on the Pro Golf Tour in 2020 when winning in Morocco while still an amateur. He won in Egypt, too, then in Poland while still in the unpaid ranks.

The powerhouse turned pro in 2021 and made some waves on the Challenge Tour last year, finishing third in the Limpopo Championship in South Africa, then opening with a 64 in the Joburg Open at Houghton on his way to 39th place.

Bachem's love affair with South Africa was cemented this year when he finished 18th in the SDC Championship before romping to a four-shot victory in the Jonsson Workwear Open to become a DPWT champion. He has since finished fourth in the Czech Masters and seventh in the Irish Open.

Other selections

Casey Jarvis 45-1
Rupert Kaminski 250-1
Deon Germishuys 200-1

Rounds of 67 and 63 saw Casey Jarvis scoot clear in the Joburg Open at Houghton last year, but back-to-back weekend 71s eventually meant ninth place. The 20-year-old has since won on the Challenge Tour and can have another Joburg title tilt this week.

Jarvis finished second five times on various tours this year before making his CT breakthrough in the Euram Bank Open in July. He carded a round of 59 in the Stella Artois Championship in April. Recent weeks have been less spectacular, but seventh place in the CT Grand Final last time out was a timely return to form.

Rupert Kaminski has shown a liking to Houghton in the Sunshine Tour Q School – 14th in 2019 and third in 2020 – and from May onwards this year he has enjoyed a surge of form and self-belief. He made his Sunshine Tour breakthrough in the PGA Championship at the end of September and the 27-year-old seems well capable of contending this week.

Deon Germishuys tied for 14th place with Kaminski in that 2019 ST Q School and has taken his game up a level this year, finishing ninth in the ISPS Handa Championship in April, winning a US Open qualifier at Walton Heath in May, sharing 15th in the Soudal Open, before third spot in the KLM Open. Back on home turf, expect big things from this improving 24-year-old.

Joburg Open course guide

Course Houghton Golf Club, Johannesburg, South Africa
Prize money ZAR 20.5m (ZAR 3,417,350 to the winner)
Length 7,227 yards
Par 70 – two par-fives; 12 par-fours; four par-threes
Field 156 The cut Top 65 and ties qualify for round three
Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Thriston Lawrence (90), Adrian Otaegui (96), Christiaan Bezuidenhout (115), Romain Langasque (125), Dean Burmester (154)
Course records - 72 holes 263 Dan Bradbury (2022) 18 holes 63 Dan Bradbury, Daniel van Tonder, Casey Jarvis

Course winners taking part Dan Bradbury

When to bet By 4.30am on Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 10am on Thursday

Time difference South Africa is two hours ahead of the UK and Ireland

Last week – DP World Tour Championship 1 N Hojgaard (25-1), T2 T Fleetwood (14-1), M Wallace (60-1), V Hovland (11-2), T5 M Pavon (100-1), J Rahm (6-1), T Lawrence (150-1), 8 V Perez (90-1)

Course type Parkland

Course overview AM Copeland designed this classic track, which was opened in 1926, and it staged the South African Open eight times between 1951 and 1992. The South African PGA Championship was played there from 1993 through 1999. And from 2000 through 2004, Houghton was the venue for the Alfred Dunhill Championship on the European Tour. The course was then sold, though, and completely changed by Jack Nicklaus and his team, opening in 2009. The only significant course form since the redesign is the Sunshine Tour Qualifying School in 2019 and 2020, and last year's Joburg Open. This is a short track, given it is played at altitude in the Highveld. Heavy bunkering, water hazards and undulating greens are the defence. The par has been reduced from 71 to 70 this year, with the third hole becoming a par-four, rather than a five

Story of last year Dan Bradbury claimed a maiden DP World Tour title, defeating Sami Valimaki by three shots

Weather forecast Sunny and warm, temperatures peaking at 31C, with light breezes throughout

Type of player suited to the challenge As with most Nicklaus designs, accurate iron-play is essential to greens heavily guarded by bunkers

Key attribute Accuracy

Spotlight insight 

Three of the last seven Joburg Opens have been won by a European 

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