Steve Palmer's Nedbank Challenge predictions & free golf betting tips + a £40 free bet

When to bet on the Nedbank Challenge

By 5.30am on Thursday

It’s also worth noting that Paddy Power are offering a £40 free bet that you can grab here ahead of the event.

Where can I watch the Nedbank Challenge

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 8.30am on Thursday

Steve Palmer's Nedbank Challenge predictions

Ryan Fox
4pts each-way 14-1 BoyleSports

Rasmus Hojgaard
3pts each-way 28-1 Betfair, Power

Yannik Paul
2pts each-way 35-1 bet365

Sean Crocker
1pt each-way 100-1 bet365

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Steve Palmer's Nedbank Challenge preview

There are two events left of the DP World Tour season and several players in the hunt for Race to Dubai glory. Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm, first and second in the standings, will tee up next week in the DP World Tour Championship.

First, though, the chasing pack have a chance to apply pressure to McIlroy and Rahm, who are skipping this week's Nedbank Challenge in South Africa. Adrian Meronk, third in the Race to Dubai, is teeing up in the Nedbank and dreaming big.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Ryan Fox 14-1

Power-packed New Zealander Ryan Fox goes into the final fortnight of the DPWT season with a golden chance of Race to Dubai success from fourth place in the standings.

Fox knows a PGA Tour card for next year is essentially assured – the top ten on the RTD will earn Stateside playing rights – and he can attack the next two DPWT events feeling loose and confident. A first RTD title would put the icing on the cake of a wonderful 2023.

A warm, calm Gary Player Country Club looks at the mercy of Fox this week. This phenomenal driver can cut the course down to size and the Kiwi beefcake showed he had got a handle on the venue when finishing runner-up to Tommy Fleetwood in last year's Nedbank, beaten by just a shot.

Over the last couple of months, Fox has appeared at the peak of his powers, finishing third in the Irish Open before winning the BMW PGA at Wentworth. He was second in the Dunhill Links a month ago and the world number 27 will fear nobody at GPCC this week.

Fox, seemingly one of the happiest players on the circuit, has a South African caddie. His alliance with Dean Smith is always a strong one, but could be particularly potent in Smith's home country. Fleetwood is getting all the attention as he bids to complete a Nedbank hat-trick, but Fox looks a better value alternative.

Next best bet

Rasmus Hojgaard 28-1

Strong ball-strikers typically dominate at GPCC and Rasmus Hojgaard should enjoy showing off his tee-to-green class this week. A four-time DPWT champion at the age of 22, the Dane has quickly established himself as one of the best players on the circuit.

The first of Hojgaard's victories came in the continent of Africa – in the Mauritius Open – and his latest success was in July in the Made In Himmerland. He is hungry for further silverware after missing out on the European Ryder Cup team.

Meronk, seemingly galvanised by his Ryder Cup snub, won the Andalucia Masters last month, and Hojgaard, who saw his brother Nicolai get on Team Europe, has similar fire in his belly. Rasmus has outplayed his brother around the Ryder Cup, finishing fourth in the French Open just prior and with form of 25-26-16 since.

Rasmus finished eighth on his Nedbank debut last year, having shared the lead going into Sunday, and he can be fancied to set up another winning chance on his return.

Other selections

Yannik Paul 35-1
Sean Crocker 100-1

Another reliable ball-striker who should make an impression in Sun City this week is Yannik Paul, a greens-in-regulation machine who has become one of the best iron-players in the game. The German does not have the prettiest swing in the world, but it is mightily effective.

Paul, who narrowly failed to qualify automatically for the European Ryder Cup team, won the Mallorca Open last year and has twice finished second on the DPWT this year – in Thailand and India. He was sixth in the French Open at the end of September and carded four under-par rounds in Qatar last time out.

The Joburg Open at the end of 2021 was Paul's first tournament in South Africa – and he finished eighth. He made his GPCC debut last year and tied 25th – a fantastic effort given his course-experience handicap at such an historic venue – and nobody outscored him in round four (67).

Complete a four-pronged attack with Sean Crocker, who was born in Zimbabwe before his family moved to California when he was five. Crocker has enjoyed his trips back to his home continent, finishing second in the Alfred Dunhill in South Africa at the end of 2020.

On his GPCC debut last year, Crocker finished 36th, which was a decent effort considering he had missed five of his previous six cuts going into that event. This time, he can approach the event with much more confidence.

Crocker fell down some stairs and injured himself in August, but is fit and firing again, producing some trademark ball-striking class in recent weeks. The 27-year-old was ninth in Qatar last time out and a second DPWT title could be coming on Sunday with a half-decent week of putting.

Course guide for the Nedbank Challenge

• Course Gary Player Country Club, Sun City, South Africa
• Prize money $6m ($1m to the winner)
• Length 7,834 yards
• Par 72 - four par-fives; ten par-fours; four par-threes
• Field 66 (no cut)
• Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Max Homa (8), Tommy Fleetwood (15), Ryan Fox (27), Justin Thomas (28), Justin Rose (37)
• Course records - 72 holes 263 Ernie Els (1999) 18 holes 62 Lee Westwood (2011)
• Course winners taking part Branden Grace, Tommy Fleetwood (twice)
• When to bet By 7.20am on Thursday
• When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 8.30am on Thursday
• Time difference South Africa is two hours ahead of the UK and Ireland
• Course type Parkland
• Course overview Gary Player Country Club, which hosted the Million Dollar Challenge and the Nedbank Challenge from 1981 to 2019, staged the South African Open in 2020 and 2021, then the Nedbank returned last year. The Dimension-Data Pro-Am (1996 to 2009), the Sun City Challenge (2007-11 and 2016-21), the Royal Swazi Open (2020), the Blue Label Challenge (2021-2022), the Vodacom Origins of Golf Final (2022) and the SunBet Challenge (2022) are low-grade Sunshine Tour events also staged at this venue. The course is enormous, but a variety of tees can be used to alter the yardage if bad weather makes the full length unplayable. The layout boasts kikuyu fairways and fast, clover-shaped, bentgrass greens surrounded by bunkers, swales and mounds. Some extremely low scores were carded many years ago – Padraig Harrington shot an 11-under-par 61 in 2001 playing with preferred lies, while Ernie Els (25 under par in 1999) and Nick Price (24 under in 1993) have also butchered Player's design. The lengthening of the course, though, has made life tougher for visitors. The layout is at altitude, so the ball flies further than usual
  
• Story of last year Tommy Fleetwood edged Ryan Fox to remain king of Sun City
  
• Weather forecast Sunny, hot and calm, with temperatures peaking at 34C
  
• Type of player suited to the challenge Quality ball-strikers have asserted themselves on the Gary Player Country Club over the last decade - churning out greens in regulation is the key to success
  
• Key attribute Power

Steve Palmer's Nedbank Challenge key stat

Nine of the last 11 Nedbank winners have been European

Grab a £40 Paddy Power free bet on the 2023 Nedbank Challenge

We’ve already mentioned that Paddy Power are offering a £40 free bet to place on all of the golf action at the event.

Here’s where you can follow these simple steps to grab your £40 free bet to place on Steve Palmer’s 2023 Nedbank Challenge tips… it's fast, secure and straightforward.

1. Head over to Paddy Power through this link and click the Join button on their homepage
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3. Make a deposit of £10 or more using a card & place a bet on a sportsbook market with odds of 1-2 or greater
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Paddy Power golf Nedbank Challenge betting sign-up offer: terms and conditions

It's worth taking a few minutes to read through the terms and conditions associated with the new golf betting signup offer before signing up. Doing so will help you get a better grasp of the details of the Nedbank Challenge free bets and what's expected of you as a new customer.

• New UK & ROI customers only
• Minimum deposit £10 bet at minimum odds of 1-2 to qualify 
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• SMS verification required
• Bets placed on Greyhound racing markets are excluded
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