Middlesbrough v Aston Villa predictions, odds and betting tips: Villa can edge past depleted Boro

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Where to watch Middlesbrough v Aston Villa

You can watch Middlesbrough v Aston Villa in the FA Cup third round on Saturday January 6, live on BBC One at 5.30pm

Match prediction & best bet

Aston Villa to win & both teams to score
1pt 21-10 Betfair

You can bet on Middlesbrough v Aston Villa here and get £40 in free bets with Paddy Power

Middlesbrough v Aston Villa odds

Middlesbrough 19-4
Aston Villa 11-20
Draw 100-30

Odds correct at time of publishing

Middlesbrough v Aston Villa team news

Middlesbrough
Seny Dieng, Riley McGree and Sam Silvera are on international duty. Darragh Lenihan and Tom Smith are out for the season and Boro are also missing the injured Matt Crooks, Paddy McNair, Marcus Forss, Lewis O'Brien, Hayden Hackney and Emmanuel Latte Lath.

Aston Villa
Matty Cash and Youri Tielemans will be assessed and Bertrand Traore has left for the Africa Cup of Nations. Tyrone Mings, Lucas Digne, Robin Olsen and Emiliano Buendia are injured but Boubacar Kamara is available after suspension.

Middlesbrough v Aston Villa predictions

Unai Emery has had a tremendous impact since arriving at Aston Villa in October 2022 but he will be keen to improve his record in domestic cup ties.

The four-time Europa League winner has lost all three of his cup games as Villa boss, going out of the EFL Cup to Manchester United and Everton and suffering a shock 2-1 defeat to League Two Stevenage in the FA Cup third round last January.

That defeat made it seven third-round exits in a row for Villa, who have won only one game in the FA Cup since losing 4-0 to Arsenal in the 2015 final.

They have had some tough draws during that run, losing to Tottenham in 2017, Manchester United in 2022 and Liverpool in 2021, when they were forced to play the youth team due to a Covid outbreak in the senior squad.

However, it is an astonishingly poor record for a Premier League club and Emery will be determined to put it right against Middlesbrough at the Riverside Stadium.

Some of Villa's fringe players can expect opportunities against Boro after a patchy festive period in which they drew 1-1 at home to bottom club Sheffield United and blew a 2-0 lead to lose 3-2 at Manchester United.

Villa needed a late penalty to seal a 3-2 home win over ten-man Burnley last time out and their defence has been unconvincing away from their Villa Park fortress this term.

Their only clean sheet in ten league matches on the road came at ten-man Chelsea while both teams scored in five of their six Europa Conference League group games.

Backing Villa to win and both teams to score looks an appealing price at the Riverside, where Boro's hopes of causing an upset have been reduced by injuries and international call-ups.

First-choice goalkeeper Seny Dieng has left for the Africa Cup of Nations and manager Michael Carrick is likely to be missing key players such as Matt Crooks and Paddy McNair.

Boro have beaten Championship leaders Leicester and promotion contenders Southampton and West Brom this season but consistency has eluded them since last term's playoff semi-final defeat to Coventry.

After beating Swansea and West Brom before Christmas, they lost at bottom club Rotherham on Boxing Day and let slip a 1-0 lead in a 3-1 home defeat to Cov on New Year's Day.

Key stat

Both teams have scored in 16 of Aston Villa's last 20 matches in all competitions.

Probable teams

Middlesbrough (4-2-3-1): Glover; Van den Berg, Fry, Clarke, Bangura; Howson, Barlaser; I Jones, Rogers, Greenwood; Coburn
Subs: Engel, Kavanagh, Gilbert, McCabe, Coulson, Bilongo, Bridge

Aston Villa (4-4-2): Martinez; Chambers, Konsa, Lenglet, Moreno; Zaniolo, McGinn, Kamara, Bailey; Duran, Watkins
Subs: Carlos, Torres, Ramsey, Luiz, Diaby, Dendoncker, Iroegbunam

Inside info

Middlesbrough

Star man Jonny Howson
Top scorer Josh Coburn/Sam Greenwood
Penalty taker Jonny Howson
Card magnet Isaiah Jones
Assist ace Morgan Rogers
Set-piece aerial threat Rav van den Berg

Aston Villa

Star man John McGinn
Top scorer Ollie Watkins
Penalty taker Ollie Watkins
Card magnet Boubacar Kamara
Assist ace Ollie Watkins
Set-piece aerial threat Nicolo Zaniolo

Middlesbrough v Aston Villa bet builder predictions

Over 2.5 goals
Aston Villa have kept just two clean sheets in 14 away games this season but they have scored eight goals in their last four Premier League road fixtures

Boubacar Kamara to be shown a card
The Villa midfielder, booked in six of his 16 league appearances this term, is back from a ban but is unlikely to temper his tough-tackling approach

Jonny Howson to be shown a card
Middlesbrough's veteran midfielder is set for a tenth start since the beginning of December and he may struggle to keep pace with the visitors' slick forwards

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Paddy Power FA Cup betting sign-up offer: terms and conditions

It's worth taking a few minutes to read through the terms and conditions associated with the new player promotion before signing up. Doing so will help you get a better grasp of the details of this Paddy Power betting offer and what's expected of you as a new player.

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• Further T&Cs apply

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