Dortmund on the brink of snapping Bayern Munich's Bundesliga dominance

Bayern Munich have dominated the German Bundesliga for the last ten seasons but the destination of this year’s title is out of their hands going into the final game of the campaign and a win for Borussia Dortmund against Mainz will be enough to crown BVB champions for the first time since 2011-12.

Dortmund began the season as 9-1 chances to top the table, while Bayern opened up as 1-5 shots and traded as low as 1-50 on January 20 before a run of three draws and a defeat from their next six games opened the door for their rivals.

A 2-1 defeat at the hands of Bayer Leverkusen in March saw Julian Nagelsmann sacked and replaced by former Dortmund boss Thomas Tuchel.

A 4-2 win over the Black and Yellows in his first game gave Bayern fans hope that Tuchel would be the man to steer them to an 11th consecutive title. But since then his side have won four, drawn one and lost two of their seven games. 

The most recent defeat, a 3-1 loss to RB Leipzig on Saturday, handed the initiative squarely to Dortmund, who capitalised with a comfortable success over Augsburg to establish a two point lead and they are now a best-priced 1-7 to win the title, with Bayern 11-2 shots.

Following back-to-back defeats in early January, BVB have won 14 of their last 18 league games to chase down the perpetual champions, and the 4-2 Der Klassiker loss was their only defeat in that time.

Dortmund, who in the last ten years have become known for failing to capitalise whenever Bayern gave them an opportunity, have been surprisingly ruthless this season.

That feat is rendered even more remarkable by the fact that they lost Erling Haaland to Manchester City in the summer and replacement Sebastian Haller missed much of the season as he received treatment for cancer.

As a result not a single one of their players is in double figures for league goals this season.

Instead, Edin Terzic’s side shared the goalscoring burden around, with no fewer than eight players managing to hit the net at least five times.

Bayern struggled to replace their record goalscorer Robert Lewandowski, who departed for Barcelona acrimoniously, and in general their transfer business this season has been a disappointment.

Sadio Mane, Joao Cancelo and Ryan Gravenberch have all failed to live up to their billing.

A skiing injury suffered by captain and goalkeeping stalwart Manuel Neuer also disrupted the Bavarians’ season. Replacement Yann Sommer managed a post-shot expected-goals tally of -1.4 while Neuer put up a figure of +3.7 in the first half of the campaign.

Bayern have looked devoid of leadership while Dortmund have been guided through their rough patches by captain Marco Reus, the recovering Sebastian Haller and the increasingly influential Jude Bellingham.

The England midfielder is likely to depart in the summer but winning the title would be the perfect send-off for him and Haller, who is back to full fitness.

For 33-year-old Reus a first title win would be vindication of his decision to stick with BVB through thick and thin over the last 11 years while teammates left, often to Bayern.

The fairytale ending for Reus, Haller and Bellingham is just 90 minutes away, if Dortmund can hold their nerve.

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