Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots betting tips and NFL predictions

Free American football tips, best bets and analysis for Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots in Week 16 of the NFL.

Where to watch

Sky Sports NFL, 6pm Sunday

Best bet

Under 43.5 points
2pts 10-11 bet365, BoyleSports, Hills

Match preview

The Bills meet the Patriots at Gillette Stadium in a game that could have huge implications on the outcome of the AFC East, and points could be at a premium.

These teams met three weeks ago in one of the craziest primetime games ever, as Patriots QB Mac Jones attempted just three passes in his team’s 14-10 victory in the midst of wild weather conditions.

Although the weather had an impact on why that was so low-scoring, given the strength of these two defences this season, unders looks the way to go in this one.

For starters, these teams have the two best pass defences in the NFL. The Bills are allowing just 5.8 passing yards per attempt, while the Patriots are allowing 6.4. It’s also worth noting that they’ve allowed a combined 27 passing touchdowns, while making 37 interceptions.

After quarterback Mac Jones's poor performance for the Patriots last week against the Colts, it’s hard to see him having much success this week, and head coach Bill Belichick may opt for another run-heavy game after what happened the last time these teams met.

What makes that significant is that focusing on the run game will allow the clock to keep ticking, which in turn should result in fewer plays.

While the Bills have been hot scorers in recent weeks, the Patriots had their number three weeks ago and it's likely that Belichick once again find a way to frustrate Buffalo. Take the under with confidence.

Inside info

Venue Gillette Stadium
Surface Artificial
Weather Mostly cloudy, 5C
Vegas handicap Buffalo +2.5
Vegas points line 43.5

Key stat

Unders has landed in the Patriots’ last six December games.

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